Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-23 13:00 CST
Iran's Revolutionary Guard struck multiple US military bases in Kuwait, escalating Middle East tensions; Reuters poll shows 86% of economists expect BOJ to hike to 1.25% by Q4; White House teases new tariffs as global 10% temporary tariff nears expiration.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold: $4,122.55 (-0.18%) | Daily range $4,112-$4,141
- WTI Crude: $88.56 (+1.91%) | Daily range $87.77-$89.10, driven higher by escalating Middle East tensions
- Hang Seng Index midday +1.34%, Hang Seng Tech +0.79%, non-ferrous metals led gains
π₯ Key News This Hour
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Strikes US Bases in Kuwait β The IRGC claimed strikes on US military facilities including Camp Arifjan, Camp Doha, Al-Adiri Camp, and Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait. Combined with the US deploying B-1 bombers from UK bases for Iran operations, the Middle East conflict has escalated significantly during this hour. This is the most critical geopolitical risk event of the session.
Reuters Poll: BOJ Rate Hike Path Solidifies β 86% of economists expect the BOJ to hike its key rate to 1.25% by end-Q4; 70% expect at least 1.50% by Q2 2027; 79% view the yen at 160 as excessively weak relative to Japan’s economic fundamentals. Market expectations for BOJ policy normalization are accelerating.
Global 10% Temporary Tariff Nears Expiration, White House Teases “New Tariffs” β The White House signaled that new tariffs will be introduced soon as the current 10% temporary tariff approaches expiration, placing markets at a critical repricing juncture.
ECB Decision Preview: Unanimous Hold Expected, September Seen as Next Action Window β Commerzbank, Scotiabank, and multiple institutions unanimously expect rates to remain unchanged at this meeting, with a potential hike in September.
π§ Strategic Assessment
The Middle East situation is the dominant variable this hour. Iran’s simultaneous strikes on multiple US bases in Kuwait, combined with B-1 bombers entering the theater, represent a clear escalation in conflict intensity.
This directly propelled WTI crude higher (+1.91%), with oil breaking above $89 intraday. If the situation deteriorates further, $90 will be the next psychological resistance level.
Gold is consolidating near $4,120 with a slight pullback, but heavyweights like Paulson continue to advocate for gold, central bank buying trends remain intact, and the medium-term bull thesis is still fully in place.
On the global trade front, the convergence of the expiring 10% temporary tariff and the White House’s new tariff preview could trigger near-term safe-haven repricing on trade friction fears.
BOJ rate hike expectations are accelerating rapidly β the yen at 160 may prove unsustainable, with profound implications for carry trades and emerging market capital flows.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- ECB interest rate decision today
- US weekly initial jobless claims (typically released Thursday)
- Global temporary tariff expiration progress and White House new tariff plan