Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-23 11:00 CST
US strikes Iranian military targets for 12th consecutive night, Tesla Q2 profit declines with negative free cash flow, WTI crude rebounds above $88 on geopolitical premium, Paulson says gold bull market still in early stages.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4127.35 (-0.06%), range 4112-4141
- WTI Crude (USOIL): 88.68 (+2.05%), range 87.77-89.06
- US Dollar Index (DXY): Below 101, intraday -0.12%
- A-shares: All three major indices turned negative, STAR 50 down over 4%, grid equipment bucked the trend
- HK chip stocks: Hua Hong Semi down over 6%, SMIC and peers followed lower
π₯ Key News This Hour
- US forces struck Iranian military targets for the 12th consecutive night, destroying maritime combat capabilities, missile/drone facilities, and air defense assets. The US is escalating strikes and deploying special forces, fighter jets, and long-range bombers to the Middle East.
- US intelligence is investigating whether Russia provided intelligence and drone technology support for Iran’s precision drone strike on a CIA facility.
- Tesla Q2 earnings: Revenue of $28.24B beat expectations, but net profit fell 5% YoY, free cash flow turned negative, and capex surged to $5.8B.
- Pakistan seeks $10B in financial support from the US as a mediator in the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations.
- Legendary Wall Street investor John Paulson: Gold’s long-term bull market is still in its early stages, bullish on gold mining stocks’ leverage potential.
- Australia’s June employment data came in stronger than expected, with markets increasing bets on an RBA rate hike in August (probability rose to 25%).
π§ Market Assessment
The US-Iran conflict has entered its 12th day of escalation, with US strike targets expanding from military facilities to maritime combat capabilities and air defense systems, coupled with a massive troop buildup in the Middle East β the probability of near-term de-escalation remains extremely low.
WTI crude has reclaimed the $88 level on geopolitical risk premium; if the conflict further threatens Hormuz Strait shipping lanes, there is additional upside room for oil prices.
Spot gold is holding support above the 4100 level, with heavyweights like Paulson publicly bullish on long-term gold prices, though the short-term outlook remains constrained by USD rebound expectations and Fed policy uncertainty, maintaining a high-level consolidation pattern.
Tesla’s earnings expose the cost of the AI arms race β declining profits, negative cash flow, and surging capex will force the market to reassess the ROI timeline for Big Tech’s AI investments.
A-shares’ STAR 50 plunged over 4% in a single session, with the semiconductor sector leading the decline, reflecting heightened market concerns over US-China tech competition and the global chip demand outlook.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- South Korea July inflation expectations (next week) β will influence the BOK’s August rate decision
- RBA August policy meeting β rate hike probability rising after strong employment data
- Monitor US-Iran conflict developments and US military buildup