📊 Market Snapshot

  • Gold (XAUUSD): 4118.26 (+0.99%), intraday high 4141.68, low 4076.79. Geopolitical risk drives safe-haven demand
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 88.03 (+3.55%), intraday high 88.30, low 84.92. Red Sea situation deteriorates sharply, Saudi tankers turn back
  • Dollar Index: Watch yen intervention risk, Japan’s Finance Minister reiterates readiness for “bold action”

🔥 Key News This Hour

🛢️ Red Sea Crisis Escalates, Oil Surges 3.5% Houthi forces have completed attack preparations (confirmed by JMIC), two Saudi tankers have turned back in the Red Sea. Iran is reportedly preparing to replicate the Strait of Hormuz harassment playbook in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Rubio reiterates willingness to negotiate with Iran, laying out three paths forward.

🏦 BOJ Considers Accelerating Rate Hikes Sources say the BOJ is considering breaking the “one hike per half-year” pattern and raising rates at a faster pace. Yen bears continue to pressure, and Japan’s Finance Minister once again signals readiness for “bold action,” though surging energy costs and widening trade deficits cast doubt on intervention effectiveness.

🤖 Weekly AI Token Consumption Breaks 60 Trillion According to Openrouter data, global AI token consumption surpassed 60 trillion in the week ending July 13, with nearly 3.5 billion text requests — AI market demand continues to explode.

📉 IBM After-Market Earnings in Focus Shares previously plunged over 25% in a single day after pre-releasing partial results. Revenue slowdown and pipeline disputes are key concerns. Tesla’s Q2 earnings also loom, with Wall Street increasingly worried about its AI spending cash burn.

🇬🇧 UK May House Prices +2.7% YoY DCLG data shows UK house price annual growth at 2.7%, down from the prior 3.8% but still showing moderate appreciation.

🇨🇳 China A-Share Updates Dongwu Securities and First Capital believe A-share support logic remains intact, with tech sectors offering investment value. Yisheng Biotechnology H1 net profit surged 4,897% YoY. Jereh Group signed a $1.465 billion major contract.

🧭 Market Assessment

Today’s core market tension centers on the Red Sea situation. A 3.5% single-day oil move is not a minor fluctuation — if Bab el-Mandeb shipping faces实质性 disruption, WTI could quickly break above $90.

Gold’s同步 rise confirms the safe-haven narrative. If it holds above 4118, the near-term target is 4200.

The BOJ’s rate hike signal combined with yen intervention expectations could trigger a carry trade unwind wave, adding additional pressure on global risk assets.

Tonight, watch IBM’s after-market earnings. Another miss could drag down the entire tech sector. Tesla earnings are also approaching — the sustainability of AI capex is being repriced by the market.

On A-shares, China’s LPR remained unchanged with stable policy, but declining global risk appetite may cap the rebound.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Today After Close: IBM Q2 Earnings (high market focus, shares already down 25%+)
  • This Week: Tesla Q2 Earnings (AI cash burn in focus)
  • Later This Week: US Flash PMI, Initial Jobless Claims