π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-21 11:00 CST
A-share tech sector stages V-shaped reversal, STAR 50 surges over 3%, CSI 500 futures jump 4%. Strait of Hormuz traffic drops further to 4 vessels, US gasoline hits $4 again. Trump slaps 50% tariff on Canada, Wall Street hedge funds dump tech stocks at record pace.
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Price | Change | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold (XAUUSD) | 4038.42 | +29.81 | +0.74% |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | 82.60 | -0.31 | -0.37% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 7443.28 | -14.41 | -0.19% |
| Dow Jones (DJI) | 51839.26 | -307.16 | -0.59% |
Gold continues to push higher, briefly breaching 4040 before pulling back, with Middle East safe-haven demand providing sustained support. Crude oscillates in a narrow range below $83 β Strait of Hormuz traffic is declining further but markets have yet to price in panic. US equity futures are broadly lower, with Dow futures down over 300 points as risk-off mode persists.
π₯ Key News This Hour
A-Share Tech Sector V-Shaped Reversal β The ChiNext Index rebounded from an intraday drop of over 2% to a gain of 2%+, while the STAR 50 surged over 3%. CSI 500 index futures jumped 4% to 7501 points. Memory chips, semiconductors, MLCC, and PCB sectors rallied collectively, with Hua Hong Semiconductor up over 10%. CATL led with 931 million yuan in net institutional inflows.
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Continues to Decline β Kpler data shows only 4 bulk commodity vessels transited the strait on Monday, down from 7 the previous day. Caution continues to rise after the latest round of US-Iran mutual strikes, with US gasoline prices returning to $4/gallon for the first time in a month. Houthi rebels simultaneously announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia.
Trump Slaps 50% Tariff on Canada β Trump signed a new proclamation imposing 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods, with USMCA-covered products no longer exempt. The White House cited Canada’s “discriminatory trade policies” as justification. Separately, aluminum tariff policy was adjusted: companies building smelters in the US can see import duties reduced from 50% to 25%.
Wall Street Hedge Funds Dump Tech Stocks at Record Pace β Goldman Sachs reports hedge funds are exiting US tech stocks at a record pace, with AI trades showing signs of “capitulation.” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned markets are underestimating risks, stating he “wouldn’t buy stocks or Treasuries right now.” Over $8 trillion in money market funds are urgently shortening duration.
Bank Indonesia Expected to Raise Rates This Week β Six out of nine economists surveyed expect Bank Indonesia to hike its benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate by 25bp to 6.0% on Wednesday, aiming to counter currency depreciation pressure.
π§ Strategic Assessment
The Middle East remains the dominant market variable β whether the 10-day US-Iran ceasefire proposal materializes is the critical inflection point.
Strait of Hormuz traffic dropping from 7 to 4 vessels will directly impact global crude supply if the trend continues; WTI could break above $85.
The A-share tech V-reversal exceeded expectations β CSI 500 futures’ 4% surge signals rapid sentiment repair, but sustainability needs confirmation.
Wall Street’s pivot from “AI conviction” to “risk-off mode” has been unusually swift; Dimon’s warning deserves attention, and US equity correction pressure has not been fully discharged.
This week watch the ECB rate decision (hawkish expectations building) and Bank Indonesia’s decision β the global tightening narrative could reignite.
β° Upcoming Key Events
- Wednesday (7/22): Bank Indonesia Rate Decision (25bp hike to 6.0% expected), US EIA Crude Inventories
- Thursday (7/23): ECB Rate Decision (hold expected but hawkish guidance), US Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday (7/24): US July Markit Flash PMI