πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4018.66 (-2.11, -0.05%), intraday range 3982.72-4030.90
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 82.02 (-0.31, -0.38%), intraday range 81.74-85.07
  • Brent crude breaks above $90 as Strait of Hormuz nearly paralyzed

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  • Iran Receives US-Iran Mediator Proposals: Iranian Foreign Ministry confirms receipt of mediator proposals, details not disclosed. Iranian Interior Minister to visit Pakistan today
  • US-Iran Conflict: 9th Night: US airstrikes on Iran continue for the ninth consecutive night, Jordan emerges as new flashpoint, US casualties drive further escalation with additional fighter jets and tankers deployed
  • Strait of Hormuz Nearly Paralyzed: IRGC intercepts multiple oil tankers, strait traffic at a standstill, Brent crude futures break $90 marking the highest monthly record in recent years
  • Russia-Ukraine Conflict Sharply Escalates: Both sides launch deadly strikes, Ukraine targets Russian energy infrastructure, raising deep concerns over global crude supply disruptions
  • UK’s 7th Prime Minister in a Decade Takes Office: Burnham enters 10 Downing Street facing dual domestic and foreign policy challenges
  • Energy Crisis Shifts to Refined Products: From Hormuz disruptions to Middle East refinery shutdowns and depleted US inventories, supply risks are re-accumulating, market may ultimately balance through demand destruction

🧭 Strategic Assessment

The Middle East situation continues to escalate, with the US-Iran conflict entering its ninth night and US casualties reported. The conflict has spilled over into Jordan with no signs of de-escalation in the near term.

The paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts the global crude supply chain. With Brent breaking above $90, upward pressure on energy costs will transmit globally, posing a new test for inflation expectations.

Gold consolidates above the $4,000 level, with geopolitical safe-haven demand and USD movements in a tug-of-war. Short-term direction depends on whether US-Iran negotiations achieve a substantive breakthrough.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates simultaneously, compounding dual-front geopolitical risks. Global risk assets are under pressure, with A-shares also dragged down today.

The focus of the energy crisis is shifting from upstream crude to refined products, with refinery bottlenecks potentially becoming the next market focal point.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • This week: Fed official speeches, EIA crude inventories, US PMI flash readings
  • Ongoing: US-Iran negotiation progress, Strait of Hormuz transit resumption