📊 Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 3997.77, down 62.18 (-1.53%), daily high 4065.49 / low 3974.01
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 79.11, down 0.61 (-0.77%), daily high 80.27 / low 78.35
  • BDI: 2840, down 89 pts (-3.04%), led by Capesize declines

🔥 Key News This Hour

  1. Gold Crashes as BofA Issues Historic Bear Market Warning — Spot gold plunged over 1.5% intraday, breaking below the psychological $4,000 level. Bank of America’s technical team warns the current pattern closely mirrors the 1980 and 2011 historic peaks, with a potential downside target of $3,315.

  2. Middle East Tensions Spike — The Houthis issued an ultimatum to Saudi Arabia: all Saudi oil facilities will become missile targets if Saudi Arabia launches another full-scale aggression against Yemen. Saudi Arabia strongly condemned Iran’s “unprovoked attacks” on Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Meanwhile, Iran has reportedly instructed the Houthis to immediately blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if US forces strike Iranian power facilities.

  3. US Housing Market Chill Deepens — US pending home sales index fell -5.4% MoM in June, the largest decline since December 2025. NAHB homebuilder confidence fell for a second straight month to its lowest level this year, squeezed by high borrowing costs and rising material prices.

  4. EIA Natural Gas Storage Below Expectations — Natural gas storage increased by 410 Bcf for the week ending July 10, below the expected 430 Bcf and the smallest build since March 27.

  5. XPeng MONA L03 Launches with a Bang — 20,000 firm orders secured within just 7 minutes of launch.

🧭 Situation Assessment

Gold broke below the $4,000 psychological level today, and with BofA’s historic peak analogy warning, the near-term technical picture is extremely unfavorable.

However, Middle East tensions escalated significantly this hour—the Houthis’ direct threat to Saudi Arabia, Iran’s Bab el-Mandeb blockade plan, and Saudi Arabia’s public condemnation of Iran: these three converging signals could boost safe-haven demand.

Crude oil hovers near $79, caught in a tug-of-war between Middle East geopolitical risk and global economic slowdown expectations.

The US housing market continues to flash weakness, with pending home sales posting the largest drop in six months and homebuilder confidence at a year-low—the transmission of high interest rates to the real economy is accelerating.

Natural gas storage build came in below expectations, offering near-term price support, though total inventory remains 6.4% above the five-year average.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Tomorrow: Bank of Japan rate decision (market expects no change)