π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-15 22:00 CST
Bank of Canada holds rate at 2.25% for the 6th consecutive meeting, slashes 2026 GDP forecast to 0.7%. Fed Chair Warsh to testify before Senate Banking Committee. US June PPI unexpectedly drops 0.3% MoM, first decline in nearly a year. US Central Command completes new round of strikes on Iran.
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD (Gold) | 4061.72 | +0.22% |
| USOIL (WTI Crude) | 79.31 | +0.18% |
Gold oscillates in a narrow range above 4050, briefly touching 4074 intraday before pulling back. Crude hovers around $79 with limited volatility as markets await Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony.
π₯ Key News This Hour
π¨π¦ BOC Holds Rate Steady, Cuts GDP Forecast
The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting, as expected. However, it slashed its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.7%, while nudging 2027 up from 1.6% to 1.8%. The BOC projects Brent crude will decline to around $70 by end-2027, but stresses the outlook is highly uncertain. Governor Macklem said the BOC won’t let high oil prices become persistent inflation, while recent data has boosted confidence in the recovery.
πΊπΈ Fed Chair Warsh Senate Testimony Imminent
Warsh is set to appear before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee at 22:00 CST for the “Fed Semiannual Monetary Policy Report” hearing. This is the second leg of his congressional testimony following Tuesday’s House appearance, where he gave his strongest signal yet β vowing to defend the Fed’s mandate even under pressure from Trump.
πΊπΈ US June PPI Cools More Than Expected
June PPI fell 0.3% month-over-month, the first decline in nearly a year, driven largely by a sharp drop in energy prices. The significant easing of wholesale inflation provides breathing room for the Fed.
πΊπΈ Fed’s Williams: Inflation May Have Peaked
New York Fed President Williams laid out six reasons for inflation moderation, projecting a return to the 2% target by 2028, while acknowledging substantial uncertainty around the scale and duration of AI-driven supply-demand imbalances.
πΊπΈ US Completes New Strikes on Iran
US Central Command announced the completion of a new round of strikes on Iran and the resumption of a maritime blockade. Analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz becomes aεΈΈζε combat zone, international shipping costs will face structural increases.
π§ Strategic Assessment
The BOC’s sharp GDP downgrade paired with a rate hold suggests stagflation risks are not yet severe enough to warrant easing.
Cooling PPI and Williams’ “inflation peak” narrative reinforce the case for the Fed to stand pat.
However, escalating US strikes on Iran pose the biggest tail risk β any material disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would drive energy prices higher, directly challenging the disinflation narrative.
Warsh’s tone tonight will set near-term market direction. A continued hawkish stance may cap risk appetite; greater confidence in disinflation would favor equities.
Gold’s resilience above 4060 reflects ongoing pricing of geopolitical risk and inflation uncertainty. Support at 4000, resistance at 4075β4100.
β° Upcoming Key Events
- 22:00 CST Fed Chair Warsh Senate testimony (in progress)
- Tomorrow US Weekly Jobless Claims (regular Thursday release)