πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4068.11 | +15.41 (+0.38%) | Range 4017-4071
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 79.16 | -0.003 (-0.004%) | Range 78.61-80.15
  • Gold staged a V-shaped intraday reversal, rebounding from an Asian-session low of 4017 to approach the day’s high of 4071
  • Crude oil rallied then pulled back, encountering selling pressure above $80, dipping slightly after PPI data

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  • US June PPI Unexpectedly Cools: Core PPI MoM 0.2% (vs 0.4% expected), YoY 4.7% (vs 5.2% expected). Following yesterday’s cooler-than-expected CPI, PPI confirms that inflation pressures are easing in phases, giving the Fed breathing room
  • Fed’s Williams Speaks Extensively: Expects inflation to fall to ~3.25% by year-end and 2% by 2028; GDP growth maintained at 2-2.25%; labor market stable; Middle East conflict remains the biggest risk variable; AI investment impact hard to predict
  • US Completes New Round of Strikes on Iran: CENTCOM confirms new airstrikes and resumption of maritime blockade. If the Strait of Hormuz becomes a normalized combat zone, international shipping costs will face structural increases
  • NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Blows Past Estimates: July reading 15.6 (vs 8.8 expected), new orders index surged from 3.5 to 22.2, but prices received index fell from 31.4 to 27.6 β€” indicating recovering manufacturing activity but weakening pricing power
  • China Q2 GDP Misses: YoY 4.3% (vs 4.5% expected), but June industrial output at 5.3% and retail sales at 1% both beat expectations β€” a mixed picture
  • BofA Survey: USD and GBP Overvalued, EUR Undervalued: Net 34% of investors see USD as overvalued, net 12% see GBP overvalued, EUR shifts to undervalued territory

🧭 Strategic Assessment

The dual decline in CPI and PPI confirms the inflation inflection point, broadly favorable for risk assets in the near term

However, Fed’s Williams emphasized inflation is still at ~4% β€” the rate-cut narrative should not be overplayed

The Middle East situation continues to escalate with new US strikes and strait blockades; crude oil supply risk premiums are unlikely to dissipate in the near term

The NY Empire State new orders surge warrants attention β€” if subsequent PMIs show synchronized improvement, the “cooling inflation + resilient growth” soft-landing narrative will gain support

Gold oscillates between inflation cooling and geopolitical hedging; the consolidation pattern above $4,000 remains intact

China’s Q2 GDP miss but structural improvement (industrial + consumption) suggests limited impact on Chinese ADRs and commodity demand expectations

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Today 21:45 CST | ⭐⭐⭐ Bank of Canada Rate Decision (expected hold at 2.25%)
  • Today 22:30 CST | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ US EIA Crude Oil Inventories (expected -2.594M barrels, prior +2.998M)
  • Tomorrow 08:40 CST | ⭐⭐ Bank of Korea Rate Decision (expected 2.75%)
  • Tomorrow 14:00 CST | ⭐⭐⭐ UK May GDP, Industrial Output, Trade Balance
  • Tomorrow 20:30 CST | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ US Weekly Jobless Claims + June Retail Sales (expected 0.2%) + Philly Fed Manufacturing Index