Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-15 11:00 CST
China Q2 GDP growth slowed to ~4.4%; suspected explosions reported at Iran Khomeini port, Iraq militia warns of response; Trump reverses Hormuz Strait toll plan within 24 hours
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4035.93 | -0.41% | Intraday range 4029-4062
- WTI Crude (USOIL): 79.52 | +0.45% | Intraday range 78.89-79.83
- A-Shares: Coal, film/TV, reducer concepts active; low-sulfur fuel oil futures +6%
π₯ Key News This Hour
China Q2 GDP Growth Slows to ~4.4% β H1 GDP reached 69.56 trillion yuan, +4.7% YoY, but Q1’s +5.0% implies a notable Q2 deceleration. The NBS attributed the slowdown to short-term and external factors. High-end manufacturing and the digital economy now contribute over 40% to growth.
Five Suspected Explosions at Iran’s Khomeini Port β IRNA reports five suspected explosion sounds at Iran’s Khomeini port, with no official comment yet. Meanwhile, Iraq’s pro-Iran militia Kata’ib Hezbollah warned it would respond if a “new war” is launched against Iran. The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with Trump having just restored the maritime blockade on Iran and threatened to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges.
Trump Reverses Strait Toll Within 24 Hours β Under collective pressure from Gulf allies, Trump abruptly withdrew the 20% Hormuz Strait transit fee plan, replacing it with “investment in the US” as an alternative. Simultaneously, he restored the maritime blockade on Iran and threatened to “destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges.”
Ukraine Opens a “New Front” in the Azov Sea β Ukraine has set its sights on the strategic Azov Sea waters, drawing strong protests from Russia, which denounced the move as “terrorism.”
π§ Market Assessment
Gold oscillates in the 4030-4060 range. Below-expectation CPI should be bullish for gold, but the safe-haven premium from escalating US-Iran tensions has been partially priced in. Watch the 4029 support level in the near term.
Crude oil holds above 79, supported by Hormuz Strait tensions. Trump’s blockade plus the Iran port explosions provide dual catalysts, though China’s Q2 GDP slowdown weighs on the demand side.
A-shares continue structural rotation with coal, film/TV, and reducer concepts leading. The 6% surge in low-sulfur fuel oil reflects Middle East supply concerns.
The US-Iran situation remains the dominant variable. If the Khomeini port explosions are confirmed as a military strike, it will trigger a new wave of risk aversion.
China’s Q2 economic slowdown is now confirmed, raising expectations for policy stimulus in H2. Watch for subsequent fiscal and monetary signals.
Buffett’s $140 billion wealth transfer plan raises long-term governance questions for Berkshire Hathaway.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- Today: US June Retail Sales MoM (20:30 CST), US July NY Fed Manufacturing Index (20:30), Fed Beige Book (next day 02:00)
- This Week: US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu), US June Housing Starts (Thu)