πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): $4,037.47 (-0.38%), breaks below $4,040, hit $4,062 high before retreating
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): $79.53 (+0.46%), supported by US-Iran Hormuz tensions
  • STAR 50 Index: losses widen to 2%, at 1969.48
  • KOSPI: SK Hynix ADR surged 27% overnight, triggering circuit breaker

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  • US-Iran Hormuz Crisis Escalates: Iran threatens “not a drop of oil will get through.” Trump reversed his Strait toll plan within 24 hours, switching back to maritime blockade and threatening to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges. The war of attrition intensifies.
  • US CPI Negative MoM for First Time in Six Years: June CPI month-over-month turned negative, sending Fed rate hike expectations tumbling. New Fed Chair Warsh vowed to fight inflation in his Congressional debut, promising a “new chapter” for the Fed.
  • China Home Price Stabilization: June tier-1 city new home prices rose 0.1% MoM; existing home price YoY declines continue to narrow (Beijing -5.5% vs prior -6.5%, Shenzhen -4.7% vs prior -5.5%), suggesting a market bottom.
  • Trump Pressures Netanyahu: Demanded Israel withdraw troops from Syria and Lebanon, warning continued presence could trigger regional escalation. Midterm elections just three months away.
  • A-Share Sector Rotation: Solar, film & entertainment, healthcare services rally; IC packaging (Huatian Technology limit-down) and liquid cooling IDC sectors weaken.

🧭 Market Assessment

CPI turning negative paired with Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric creates a delicate mix β€” markets are torn between “inflation has peaked” and “the Fed isn’t blinking.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest tail risk. If Iran’s blockade threat materializes, crude at $100+ is not fantasy.

China’s narrowing home price declines are a positive signal, but tier-2/3 cities continue to fall. The L-shaped bottoming pattern remains intact.

A-share sector rotation is violent β€” tech under pressure while consumer and healthcare step up. Watch for style-switching risks in the near term.

KOSPI’s surge is CPI-driven spillover. SK Hynix ADR +27% signals extreme euphoria in the AI supply chain β€” overheating risk is real.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • No major economic releases today. Market focus remains on Warsh’s Congressional testimony follow-through and Middle East geopolitical developments.