πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4031.22 (+0.73%) intraday range 3983.56 β†’ 4034.06, gold consolidating above the 4000 level
  • WTI Crude USOIL: 78.94 (+1.46%) intraday range 77.68 β†’ 80.59, oil whipsawed by Middle East turmoil
  • All eyes on tonight’s 20:30 CST US June CPI release; core CPI MoM consensus at 0.2%

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  • US Suspends Military Aircraft Evacuation from Israel: Israeli media reports the US has halted evacuation flights from Ben-Gurion International Airport; Israel’s transport minister says Israel is barring additional US refueling planes from landing, signaling a new rift in US-Israel relations
  • Multi-Party Diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz: Oman’s Foreign Ministry reaffirmed cooperation with all parties to restore freedom of navigation; UK PM spokesman said the strait should reopen without tolls; follows Trump’s earlier move to reimpose blockade on Iran and plan a 20% “escort fee”
  • US-Iran Military Conflict Escalates: After Iran bombed a US base in Jordan, the US launched 5-hour continuous airstrikes on Iran; Strait of Hormuz transport near standstill, Asian refineries pivoting to US crude purchases
  • Ukrainian Drone Strikes Russian Salavat Petrochemical Plant: Market sources report Ukrainian drones attacked petrochemical facilities inside Russia, further broadening geopolitical risk
  • UK and EU Formally Sign Gibraltar Status Treaty: Another major post-Brexit legacy issue resolved
  • Huatai Securities H1 Profit +50-55% YoY: Driven by favorable capital markets and dual engines of wealth management and institutional services
  • Air China H1 Loss 2.1-2.6B RMB, Jinko Technology Loss 177-246M RMB: Aviation and solar sectors still under operational pressure
  • Chongqing Power Grid Load Hits Record 30.67 GW: Soaring demand under red alert heatwave
  • BofA Bull-Bear Indicator Flashes Warning: Global investor sentiment at “extreme bullish” contrarian levels, signaling potential equity correction
  • Alibaba Cloud Cuts GLM-5.2 Fast Mode Pricing: Effective July 15 00:00 Beijing time

🧭 Strategic Assessment

Tonight’s CPI is the single most important daily catalyst this week β€” any deviation from the 0.2% core CPI MoM consensus will directly determine near-term direction for the dollar, gold, and equities

Middle East dynamics showing subtle shifts β€” Oman’s mediation, UK’s no-toll stance, and US-Israel friction suggest a diplomatic window may be opening, though US-Iran military confrontation remains an active threat

Oil’s intraday range of nearly $3 (77.68-80.59) shows geopolitical premium being repriced; if Hormuz remains blocked, a return to the $90-100 range is far from impossible

Gold stabilizing above $4,000 with heavyweight asset managers like Abrdn backing the secular bull case; near-term CPI volatility could offer better entry points

Equity sentiment flashing red β€” BofA’s bull-bear indicator at extreme bullish territory, combined with tonight’s CPI uncertainty, makes near-term correction risk worth heeding

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • Tonight 20:30 CST: US June CPI (core CPI MoM consensus 0.2%, headline CPI YoY expected to ease)
  • July 15: China June industrial output, Q2 GDP
  • July 16: US June retail sales, Fed Beige Book
  • Ongoing: Strait of Hormuz transit resumption progress, US-Iran ceasefire talks