πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold (XAUUSD): 4023.83 | +0.55% | Daily range 3983.56 - 4034.06
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 79.85 | +2.63% | Daily range 77.68 - 80.10
  • Nikkei 225: 67,743.50 close | +0.74%
  • KOSPI: Closed +49.9 pts
  • A-Shares: SSE +1%, SZSE Component +2.33%, ChiNext +3%, nearly 4,000 stocks up
  • Shanghai/Shenzhen Turnover: Above 2.5T yuan for 56th consecutive session
  • German 2Y Yield: 2.7854%, highest since July 2024, +6.5bp intraday

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

Fed Rate Hike Expectations Surge Fed Governor Waller stated that if this week’s core CPI comes in hot again, the FOMC will have to consider a near-term rate hike, and suggested delaying the dot plot release schedule. Markets are now nearly fully pricing in a September rate hike, with two hikes expected by end of Q1 2027. The “Fed whisperer” also emphasized that core CPI matters more for the Fed. Tonight’s 20:30 CPI print will be decisive.

BOE Rate Hike Bets Surge Traders have fully priced in a 25bp hike by September, with rate futures now implying ~50bp of tightening by December (up from ~40bp on Monday), as UK inflation pressures continue to exceed expectations.

WTI Crude Surges 2.6% Past $80 Oil prices surged intraday, briefly breaking above $80. The Strait of Hormuz crisis combined with Kazakhstan’s H1 production drop of 8.4% is tightening supply expectations. Goldman Sachs noted that Trump’s proposed 20% transit fee on passing vessels would make oil structurally more expensive.

BHP Labor Talks Collapse The Australian Combined Ports Union held 5-hour wage negotiations with BHP without reaching a deal. Workers plan to continue striking on July 16, with the next negotiation set for July 21.

India June WPI Far Above Expectations India’s June WPI rose 9.87% YoY (vs. 9.15% expected), with the fuel price index surging 27.41% YoY, highlighting significant imported inflation pressures.

South Korea Launches Real Estate Policy Review South Korea’s government kicked off a three-day real estate policy seminar focusing on appropriate holding tax levels and ultra-luxury housing regulation. Meanwhile, the anti-stock manipulation task force reported ~10 major cases over the past year, deploying AI to combat market manipulation.

Hong Kong PCB Stocks Surge Kingboard Laminates surged over 14%, Kingboard Holdings and Guanghe Technology rose over 9%, as semiconductor supply chain momentum continues.

Goldman: Leveraged ETFs Amplify Volatility, Semi Cycle Not Peaked Goldman Sachs noted that leveraged-position crowding has been the primary driver of recent tech stock turbulence, but industry fundamentals still provide support.

🧭 Situation Assessment

Fed rate hike expectations are self-reinforcing β€” Waller’s hawkish rhetoric combined with market pricing of two hikes has created a dangerous expectation spiral. If tonight’s CPI fails to cool sufficiently, it will trigger a dual sell-off in bonds and equities.

WTI crude breaking above $80 is not just a geopolitical premium β€” Kazakhstan’s production decline and the BHP strike represent real supply tightening. Even if Hormuz tensions ease, oil downside is limited.

German 2-year yields hitting a two-year high signals that European rate pressure is synchronizing with the US, forming a global tightening resonance.

A-shares are charting an independent course, with ChiNext surging nearly 3%, suggesting domestic capital is betting on internal demand and policy easing amid rising external uncertainty.

India’s WPI surging to 9.87% serves as a reminder: emerging market inflation is far from contained, and the global battle against inflation is far from over.

Gold oscillates above 4020 β€” while a stronger dollar exerts pressure, geopolitical risk and CPI uncertainty keep gold resilient.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 18:00 US June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
  • 20:15 US Weekly ADP Employment Change (week ending June 27)
  • 20:30 US June CPI YoY / Core CPI (biggest variable of the week)
  • TBD Fed Chair Walsh Congressional Testimony Debut