π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-13 13:00 CST
Iran's 4th-phase retaliation destroys US HIMARS in Kuwait; KOSPI circuit breaker triggered, -8%; WTI crude surges 4.15%
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold 4056.65 (-1.52%), declining despite geopolitical tension as USD strength dominates
- WTI Crude 74.39 (+4.15%), surging on Middle East supply disruption risk
- Spot Silver breaks below 58 (-3.10%)
- South Korea KOSPI circuit breaker triggered, -8%; SK Hynix -13%, Samsung -9%
- USD strengthening, Wall Street collectively bullish on the dollar
π₯ Key News This Hour
- IRGC announces fourth-phase retaliation, destroying two US HIMARS launcher systems at a base in Kuwait
- Jordanian military intercepted and shot down four missiles from Iran entering its airspace
- South Korea KOSPI triggers 7th circuit breaker this year, index down 8%, led by semiconductor sell-off
- Trump issues threat: if Iran attempts assassination, US will “completely destroy” Iran within a year
- Fed Chair Warsh’s first Congressional testimony looms; some officials advocate reversing last year’s rate cuts
- Zelenskyy dismisses Prime Minister in third major cabinet reshuffle since Russia-Ukraine conflict began
- TSMC may raise mature-node pricing; semiconductor cost transmission could spread across entire supply chain
π§ Strategic Assessment
The Middle East conflict is escalating from proxy warfare to direct military confrontation. Iran’s fourth-phase retaliation explicitly targeting US ground assets marks a qualitative shift in conflict intensity.
Gold’s counterintuitive decline is fundamentally driven by the dollar β Wall Street’s collective bullish dollar stance and “US exceptionalism” are draining global capital, with surging real yields suppressing gold’s safe-haven premium.
The 4%+ oil surge has partially priced in Hormuz Strait risk, but the market is underestimating the real story: global refining capacity is being decimated, and downstream product pressure may prove far greater.
KOSPI’s circuit breaker is not an isolated event β it reflects the confluence of semiconductor concentration risk and geopolitical shock, triggering an accelerating exodus from emerging market assets.
Warsh’s first Congressional testimony is this week’s most consequential macro catalyst. A hawkish signal β reversing cuts or even hinting at hikes β would fundamentally reset the global asset pricing anchor.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- This week: Fed Chair Warsh’s first Congressional testimony (date TBD)
- This week: 41 new fund launches, equity-dominant
- Ongoing: US military’s new round of strikes on Iran β monitor developments