📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-13 12:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

🔥 Key Developments This Hour

🚨 Iran Revolutionary Guard Attacks US Military Base in Kuwait The IRGC has claimed responsibility for attacking a US military base in Kuwait. Combined with this morning’s confirmation that US forces have begun a new round of strikes on Iran, the Middle East conflict has escalated dramatically. The Strait of Hormuz has been declared closed by Iran, sending crude oil supply risk sharply higher — WTI surged nearly 4% intraday.

KOSPI Crashes 7%, Bank of Korea Forced to Intervene South Korea’s KOSPI index briefly extended losses to 7%, breaking below the 7,000 mark to hit its lowest level since May 4. SK Hynix shares in Seoul plunged over 10%, despite its US ADR having surged 13% just last week. The Bank of Korea was forced into emergency market intervention.

SK Hynix Q2 Outlook Downgraded Korea Investment & Securities forecasts SK Hynix Q2 revenue at 80.9 trillion KRW and operating profit at 60.4 trillion KRW, approximately 8% below market consensus. Separately, a South Korean court has barred two former Samsung NAND flash design employees from working at SK Hynix until April 2027.

EU Imports Record Russian LNG in H1 2026 According to the Financial Times, the EU imported a record volume of LNG from Russia’s flagship project in H1 2026, absorbing nearly the facility’s entire output just months before the EU ban on Russian gas imports takes effect.

A-Shares Close Morning Session Sharply Lower Shanghai Composite -1.54%, Shenzhen Component -2.61%, ChiNext -2.38%. Defense electronics, CSSC-linked stocks, and commercial aerospace led the declines, while traditional Chinese medicine bucked the trend. In domestic futures, fuel oil surged over 4% while Shanghai silver fell nearly 3%.

Ukraine Political Earthquake: Zelensky Fires Prime Minister President Zelensky announced the dismissal of the current prime minister and a sweeping cabinet reshuffle — the third major overhaul since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began. Ruling party officials called the move “completely unexpected.”

🧭 Strategic Assessment

The Middle East situation has escalated from “conflict” to “war-level confrontation.” Iran’s attack on a US base in Kuwait means the battlefield has expanded beyond Iranian territory to US military installations across the Gulf.

The Strait of Hormuz closure is not a short-term event — roughly 20% of global oil transits through this chokepoint, providing a fundamental basis for further oil price surges.

Gold’s decline despite the geopolitical crisis warrants serious attention — this typically signals a liquidity crunch where investors are forced to sell gold for cash, a classic extreme-risk-phase signal.

The KOSPI crash reflects multiple converging factors: deteriorating global risk sentiment + SK Hynix ADR premium mean-reversion + escalating Samsung talent wars. Bank of Korea intervention may only slow the decline, not reverse the trend.

A-shares are also under pressure but with relatively moderate losses. The defense sector’s decline despite the Middle East conflict is notable — markets may view direct benefits to Chinese defense stocks as limited.

Warsh’s Congressional testimony this week represents another potential risk catalyst — hawkish signals would further tighten global liquidity conditions.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

• This Week: Fed Chair Warsh’s first Congressional testimony (time TBD) — market focus on inflation and rate path signals
• This Week: US June CPI release, will directly impact July FOMC meeting expectations
• Today: Monitor Middle East developments, especially whether the US responds to Iran’s attack on the Kuwait base