π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-13 11:00 CST
US-Iran military conflict escalates, Strait of Hormuz closed; Fed's Warsh faces rate reversal decision; Ukraine PM dismissed
π Market Snapshot
- XAUUSD 4069.39 (-1.21%) β Gold declines despite geopolitical crisis, pressured by USD strength and rate hike expectations
- USOIL 74.11 (+3.77%) β Oil surges on Strait of Hormuz closure
- Spot Palladium 1250.31 (-2.00%)
π₯ Key News This Hour
US-Iran Military Conflict Fully Escalates US Central Command confirmed completion of a new round of strikes against Iran, using precision-guided munitions to destroy dozens of targets across multiple locations, deploying unmanned boats for the first time. Iran’s IRGC Aerospace Forces retaliated immediately, destroying key helicopter maintenance facilities, P-8 electronic warfare aircraft hangars, and drone command centers at the US Sheikh Isa base in Bahrain. A massive explosion occurred at a US military base in Kuwait, and the US Navy drone command center in Bahrain was also destroyed. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed by Iran.
Fed’s July Meeting Suspense Builds “Fed Whisperer” Nick Timiraos warns that Warsh faces his first major decision: whether to reverse last year’s rate cuts. With inflation risks re-emerging, some officials are advocating for a reversal. Warsh will also make his first Congressional testimony as Fed Chair this week.
Ukraine Prime Minister Abruptly Dismissed Zelensky announced the dismissal of the PM who served less than a year, along with a full cabinet reshuffle β the third major political shakeup since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began.
Veteran GOP Senator Lindsey Graham Dies Suddenly The South Carolina Senate seat has instantly become a focal point of power struggle, with factions maneuvering overnight.
Wall Street Giants Collectively Bullish on USD Rising real yields combined with rate hike expectations are driving global capital into the dollar, putting pressure on emerging markets.
Foldable iPhone Orders Raised to 10 Million Units Apple has informed suppliers to prepare for production of approximately 10 million foldable iPhones, up from the previous forecast of 7-8 million units.
π§ Strategic Assessment
The Middle East has entered a phase of direct US-Iran military confrontation. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a material threat to global crude supply, with near-term upside room for oil prices.
Gold’s decline despite the crisis signals that markets are pricing in “USD as safe haven” rather than “gold as safe haven” β Fed rate hike expectations are now dominating global asset pricing.
This week’s focus will center on Warsh’s Congressional testimony and Fed July meeting expectations. If Warsh signals hawkishness, USD strength will pressure gold, emerging markets, and commodities.
The Ukraine political shakeup may affect Russia-Ukraine peace talks, but market attention remains limited in the short term.
A-share bank stocks rising reflects defensive capital allocation, with overall market risk appetite remaining low.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- OPEC Monthly Oil Report (Today) β clues on Middle East producer output and export recovery
- Fed Chair Warsh Congressional Testimony (This Week)
- Fed July Meeting (Month End)