π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-13 10:00 CST
US-Iran conflict escalates as Iran again declares closure of Strait of Hormuz; WTI crude surges nearly 4%; Trump warns of total destruction of Iran; UN urges both sides to resume negotiations; Shenyang issues Level 1 red flood alert.
π Market Snapshot
| Instrument | Price | Change | Daily Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | 4072.17 | -1.14% | 4061 - 4103 |
| USOIL | 74.22 | +3.92% | 73.02 - 74.47 |
Gold retreats while crude surges. Hormuz closure expectations drive oil higher; gold is caught between geopolitical risk and a strengthening dollar.
π₯ Key News This Hour
π’οΈ Hormuz Conflict Escalates, Crude Surges 4%
Iran has expanded strikes to Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and other Gulf states, again declaring closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US military confirms a new round of strikes against Iran has begun. WTI crude jumped above $74, up nearly 4% intraday.
π£ Trump Threatens Total Destruction of Iran Over Assassination Plot
Facing assassination threats, Trump warned that if Iran acts, the US would “totally destroy and annihilate all of Iran” within a year. The Financial Times notes Tehran is still betting Trump won’t fully escalate.
ποΈ UN Secretary-General Urges US-Iran to Resume Talks
Guterres expressed deep concern over the severe escalation in the Gulf region, urging Iran and the US to urgently resume negotiations and resolve outstanding issues through diplomatic channels. All attacks must cease immediately.
π³οΈ Capitol Hill Earthquake: Graham’s Sudden Death Sparks GOP Power Struggle
Veteran Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has died suddenly, turning South Carolina’s Senate seat into an instant power battleground. GOP factions are already maneuvering behind the scenes.
π¦ Warsh’s First Congressional Hearing Looms, “Silence Strategy” Faces Stress Test
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will face Congressional questioning for the first time. Markets are watching for signals on inflation outlook, rate path, and balance sheet reduction.
π§οΈ Shenyang Issues Level 1 Red Flood Alert
Shenyang’s flood control headquarters raised the emergency response to the highest level based on rainfall forecasts and current hydrological conditions.
π―π΅ Japan Finance Minister’s Comments Support Yen and JGBs
Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities noted that Finance Minister Katayama’s remarks last Friday may provide near-term support for yen and JGB market sentiment.
π¬ US Plans Major Increase in Mexican Sugar Imports to 1.15M Tons
A 512% increase from the 2025-2026 season, with USDA expecting to execute in the 2026-2027 marketing year.
π§ Market Assessment
The week opens with extreme tension as the US-Iran conflict escalates from rhetoric to actual military engagement. Hormuz closure expectations are today’s core market driver.
Crude is riding a geopolitical risk premium in the short term, but be wary of a rapid pullback if tensions de-escalate β Trump’s “destroy Iran” rhetoric is more deterrence posturing, and the bar for full-scale war remains extremely high.
Gold’s decline despite geopolitical risk is noteworthy β the market is choosing to price dollar strength over safe-haven demand, suggesting rising real rate expectations are compressing gold’s risk premium.
Warsh’s Congressional hearing this week is another key variable. A hawkish signal would further boost the dollar and pressure both gold and risk assets.
Asia-Pacific markets show clear divergence β Hang Seng Tech strength and A-share semiconductor rallies suggest some capital is seeking structural opportunities within the conflict rather than broad risk-off positioning.
β° Upcoming Key Events
- This week’s focus: Fed Chair Warsh Congressional testimony + US June CPI
- Ongoing: Strait of Hormuz situation, US-Iran diplomatic developments, Middle East US military deployments