π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00 CST) | 2026-07-13
US-Iran conflict escalates to full-scale military engagement; Iran announces closure of Strait of Hormuz and launches missile strikes on multiple Gulf states; Senator Lindsey Graham dies suddenly, triggering a power vacuum in Congress; Ukraine strikes Russian oil refinery and Azov Sea tanker.
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Price | Change | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold (XAUUSD) | 4,083.41 | -35.86 | -0.87% |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | 73.60 | +2.17 | +3.04% |
Gold briefly dipped below the 4,080 level, touching an intraday low of 4,068. Crude surged over 3% on Hormuz tensions but has since pulled back from overnight highs.
π₯ Key Overnight Developments
US-Iran Conflict Fully Escalates β Strait of Hormuz Closed Again The US military confirmed a new round of strikes against Iran, conducted in two waves β the first during Sunday daytime and a second, larger wave Sunday night. Iran reported that the city of Ahvaz and surrounding areas in Khuzestan province were hit by US artillery, with multiple counties targeted. In retaliation, Iran expanded its missile strikes to Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, and other Gulf states, and once again announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Axios, citing US officials, reported that approximately 20 commercial vessels transited the Strait in the past 24 hours under US military coordination.
Senator Lindsey Graham Dies Suddenly β Capitol Hill Power Vacuum Senior Republican Senator Lindsey Graham died suddenly from an aortic dissection. The South Carolina Senate seat has instantly become a fierce battleground, with Republican factions scrambling overnight to position for the vacancy.
Ukraine Strikes Russian Oil Refinery and Azov Sea Tanker Ukraine claimed its artillery struck a Russian oil refinery and an oil tanker in the Azov Sea, marking another escalation in energy infrastructure attacks.
Domestic (China) Seres swung from profit to loss, projecting at least a 1.5 billion yuan loss for H1. The NDRC allocated 100 million yuan each to support disaster recovery in Guangxi and Zhejiang.
π§ Strategic Assessment
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil transit. Iran’s closure announcement combined with missile strikes on multiple Gulf nations pushes the conflict to its highest intensity in years.
WTI’s 3% surge is a rational first response, but caution is warranted: OPEC releases its monthly report today, and any production increase signal could offset part of the geopolitical premium.
Gold’s decline of 0.87% despite extreme geopolitical tension deserves attention β this may reflect USD strength or market pricing of “war escalation β accelerated Fed tightening.”
Graham’s sudden death will profoundly reshape US domestic politics, introducing new uncertainty around Senate balance of power and fiscal policy trajectory.
Today’s OPEC monthly report and tomorrow’s US CPI are the two pivotal events this week. With geopolitics and macro data pulling in opposite directions, expect sustained elevated volatility.
π Today’s Key Economic Calendar
| Time (CST) | Event | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| TBD | OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report | βββ |
| 20:00 | Canada CFIB Business Barometer (Jul 10) | ββ |
| 23:30 | US 3-Month / 6-Month T-Bill Auction | β |
| Tue 00:30 | Fed Governor Waller Speech | βββ |
| Tue 02:00 | US June Federal Budget | ββ |
β οΈ Tomorrow’s Headliner: US June CPI (est. 3.8%, prior 4.2%) β the single most important data point this week, directly shaping Fed rate path pricing.