📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-12 19:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

⚠️ Sunday — markets closed. Friday (7/11) closing prices shown below.

Gold edged lower on Friday after an intraday swing from a high of 4134.77 to a low of 4072.52 — a 62-dollar range. Crude also weakened, retreating from an intraday peak of 72.90.

🔥 Key News This Hour

⚔️ US-Iran Conflict Escalates Sharply

The US military completed its third round of strikes on Iran this week on July 11, using land-based and carrier-based fighter jets, drones, and naval vessels to strike approximately 140 Iranian military targets with precision munitions. Iran’s state media reported that an Iranian officer was killed in Sunday’s US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Bahrain and Jordan. Bahrain’s military said Iran is conducting “despicable missile and drone attacks targeting civilians,” with air defense systems intercepting some of the attacks. Jordan’s government condemned the Iranian attacks as a flagrant violation of sovereignty and a “dangerous escalation.”

🛳️ Strait of Hormuz: Closed or Not?

Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the US-led Joint Maritime Information Center stated that the southern shipping lane off the coast of Oman remains open for two-way traffic. Qatar’s Ministry of Transport advised citizens to suspend all maritime activities effective immediately. Iraq’s Foreign Ministry called for respect of national sovereignty and avoidance of regional destabilization.

🇮🇶 Iraqi PM to Visit Washington Monday

Iraq’s Prime Minister will travel to Washington on Monday and is expected to sign multiple oil and gas memoranda of understanding during the visit.

📉 WSJ Survey: US Recession Probability Drops to 25%

The latest Wall Street Journal survey shows economists now expect US GDP growth of 2.1% this year (up from 2% in the April survey), with recession probability falling from 33% to 25%.

🚢 Oman: 23 Crew Rescued from GFS Galaxy

One crew member remains missing as search and rescue operations continue.

🇨🇳 South China Sea Arbitration Ruling — 10th Anniversary

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement criticizing 14 countries including the US, Philippines, Australia, and Japan for marking the 10th anniversary of the South China Sea arbitration ruling. Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi made remarks on the matter, drawing strong condemnation from China.

🧭 Situation Assessment

This week’s US-Iran conflict has escalated from military strikes to a regional multilateral confrontation — after three rounds of US bombing on Iran, Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Bahrain and Jordan, expanding the conflict beyond the bilateral US-Iran framework.

The Strait of Hormuz is now the largest uncertainty variable. Iran has declared the strait closed, but the southern lane remains open — both sides are engaged in an information war as well. If the strait is materially blockaded, global crude supply would face a major shock, though Iran’s “closure” declaration currently appears more political posturing than physical reality.

Key focus this week: Iraq’s PM visits Washington Monday to sign oil and gas MOUs, potentially signaling that the US is rewiring its energy diplomacy network in the Middle East.

The WSJ survey shows recession probability falling to 25% and GDP forecast raised to 2.1% — market confidence in a US soft landing is strengthening, though geopolitical risk could become a new disturbance variable.

Gold closed at 4119 after a 62-dollar Friday range — bulls and bears are in fierce contention. If Hormuz tensions deteriorate further, safe-haven demand could push gold back toward all-time highs.

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