π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00 CST) | 2026-07-12
US launches third wave of strikes on Iran; Oman proposes dual-channel Strait of Hormuz management; bipartisan housing bill becomes law without Trump signature; Le Pen widens lead in French election polls
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold (XAUUSD) | 4119.27 | -0.11% |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | 71.42 | -0.35% |
| S&P 500 | 7575.25 | +0.42% |
| Dow Jones | 52637.09 | +0.29% |
| Nasdaq | β | +0.29% |
| US Dollar Index | 100.95 | +0.05% |
| CNN Fear & Greed | 49.5 | Neutral |
Friday’s US session saw modest gains across all three major indices. SK Hynix ADR surged 12.76% on its US debut, lifting chip stocks, though memory chip names remained under pressure. Gold hovered narrowly above 4100, while crude edged lower amid Middle East uncertainty.
π₯ Overnight Key Developments
Geopolitics: US-Iran Escalation Continues
- US launches third wave of strikes on Iran β CENTCOM confirms this marks the third round of military action within one week.
- Oman proposes dual-channel Strait of Hormuz management β Iranian passage would require prior approval. Oman and Iran agreed to continue negotiations. Meanwhile, the US denied sending a team to Oman for talks.
- US pushes to restart Iraq-Syria oil pipeline β Aims to establish an alternative export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
- Trump issues harsh warning to Iran β Claimed 1,000 missiles are locked on Iranian targets, with “thousands more” to follow if Iran takes action.
US Domestic
- Bipartisan housing bill becomes law without Trump’s signature β The “21st Century Path to Homeownership Act” expands housing supply and aims to boost homeownership rates.
- Trump boasts about election victory β Claims “landslide win” despite media “fake news.”
Europe
- Le Pen widens lead in French election polls β After an appeals court shortened her ban from running, Le Pen’s polling lead expanded to 34%-35.5% ahead of next April’s presidential election.
Tech
- Musk and Altman trade barbs as GPT-5.6 launches β Musk called Altman’s operation “fraud elevated to a whole new level.”
- Apple sues OpenAI for alleged trade secret theft β Claims OpenAI obtained unreleased product designs and engineering files through former Apple employees.
- OpenAI’s Altman: AI is creating jobs β Says this contradicts his earlier expectations.
- Meta AI image generation feature pulled after controversy β Removed amid privacy and likeness-rights concerns.
Other
- Venezuela earthquake death toll rises to 4,333.
- China’s Central Meteorological Observatory issues typhoon yellow alert for Typhoon Bavi, now weakened to a severe tropical storm.
- Global sovereign wealth funds increase AI investments.
π§ Strategic Assessment
The US-Iran conflict is sliding from diplomatic brinkmanship into sustained military confrontation β the third wave of strikes signals Washington has no intention of de-escalating in the near term, and Strait of Hormuz transit risk is being repriced.
Oman’s dual-channel proposal and the US push to restart the Iraq-Syria pipeline suggest all parties are preparing for prolonged geopolitical friction; crude’s supply-side risk premium is unlikely to fade quickly.
This week’s dense Fed speaker slate, combined with the CPI print, forms the critical window for determining whether a July rate hike materializes β CME odds already sit at 33.7%.
Gold remains locked in a tug-of-war around the 4100 level, with haven bids and rate-hike expectations canceling each other out; near-term direction hinges on whether CPI data breaks the stalemate.
Fear & Greed at 49.5 neutral suggests no extreme positioning, but the elevated safe-haven demand component (67 greed) alongside neutral VIX indicates smart money is quietly hedging.
π Today’s Data Calendar
Sunday β no major economic data releases scheduled.
Key events this week:
- Tuesday: US June CPI (biggest risk event of the week)
- Wednesday: Fed Chair Walsh congressional testimony
- Throughout the week: Heavy Fed speaker slate (final window before blackout period)