Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-11 17:00 CST
Strait of Hormuz quiets down but traffic plummets; Trump reverses on US-Canada bridge opening; Deutsche Bank warns of Fed speaking blitz next week ahead of CPI
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4119.27 (-0.11%), daily range 4072.52 - 4134.77
- WTI Crude USOIL: 71.42 (-0.35%), daily range 70.68 - 72.90
π₯ Key News This Hour
Strait of Hormuz Quiets But Traffic Plummets: Following yesterday’s US Navy escort operation, the Strait saw no military activity today, but vessel traffic dropped significantly. While shipping disruption fears have eased, the decline in actual throughput suggests trade routes remain in flux.
Trump Reverses: US-Canada Bridge to Open on the 27th: Trump announced on social media that the Gordie Howe International Bridge connecting Michigan and Ontario will open on July 27, reversing his earlier stance against the project. The move is seen as a conciliatory signal toward Canada trade relations.
Deutsche Bank: Fed Speaking Blitz Next Week Ahead of Blackout: Deutsche Bank notes a packed schedule of Fed speeches next week before the pre-meeting blackout period, with Waller kicking off on Monday. Markets will scrutinize officials’ interpretation of CPI data and any hints of rate hike inclinations.
Tencent in Talks to Acquire Manus at ~$2B Valuation: A consortium led by Tencent is negotiating to buy back shares of general AI agent company Manus from Meta at an estimated $2 billion valuation, with Tencent retaining a minority stake.
Israel Suspends South Lebanon Operations at US Request: Israeli political leadership has instructed the military to halt all “sensitive” operations in southern Lebanon, effective until further notice. Washington is reportedly working to keep Israel out of the Iran situation.
Russia-Ukraine Fighting Continues: Ukrainian forces launched 41 attacks on Russia’s Belgorod region in a single day, with 47 drones intercepted. Ukraine’s president signed a decree establishing a special command and joint rapid reaction force. A drone attack on vessels in Taganrog Bay killed one person.
Typhoon Bavi Prompts Flight Cancellations: The 9th typhoon of the year, Bavi, is bringing heavy wind and rain to multiple regions in China. Major airlines including Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern have issued ticket change and refund notices.
π§ Market Assessment
Gold consolidates above 4100 after an intraday swing exceeding $60, indicating intense tug-of-war but persistent safe-haven demand.
The Strait of Hormuz appears calm but reduced traffic means real trade costs are still rising β crude supply-side risk is not fully priced out.
Trump’s softening stance on Canada signals potential easing of trade tensions, which could benefit cross-border trade sectors.
The Fed speaking blitz combined with CPI data next week puts markets in a high-volatility window β officials’ remarks before the blackout could set the tone for the July meeting.
Geopolitical risks are multi-pronged β US-Iran, Russia-Ukraine, Middle East β but market sensitivity to geopolitical events has diminished barring actual energy supply disruptions.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- Jul 14 (Mon): Fed’s Waller speaks at NYBEA
- Jul 15 (Tue): US June CPI YoY (unadjusted)
- Next Week: China H1 2026 trade data press conference
- Next Week: Brazil July Conab soybean production estimate