📊 Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4119.27 (-0.11%), intraday range 4072.52 ~ 4134.77
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 71.42 (-0.35%), intraday range 70.68 ~ 72.90
  • Overall risk appetite remains cautious; gold consolidating at elevated levels, crude edging lower

🔥 Key News This Hour

🛢️ Iran Situation: Explosions Near Tehran → Officially Clarified as Controlled Demolition

Multiple media outlets intensively reported explosions heard from the eastern direction of Tehran Province (14:10 Saudi Al-Hadath, 14:20 Iran FarsNews) within this hour. Iranian officials subsequently clarified the sounds were related to a controlled operation to destroy explosives (14:33). Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Muscat, Oman during the same period (14:01), following Qatari representatives who had already flown to Iran for mediation. The US Saturday deadline for Iran approaches, keeping tensions elevated but with no signs of escalation yet.

🏦 Deutsche Bank: Intensive Fed Speeches Next Week, Focus on CPI Interpretation and Rate Hike Leanings

Deutsche Bank notes that after weeks of relatively quiet Fed commentary, next week will see a wave of intensive speeches before the blackout period begins. Fed Governor Waller’s Monday speech at the National Association for Business Economics leads the lineup. Markets will closely watch officials’ interpretation of the June CPI data and any signals of potential rate hike leanings.

🌪️ Typhoon Bavi Approaches, Multiple SE Coast Provinces Activate Emergency Response

Typhoon Bavi (Category 9, severe typhoon level, max sustained winds of 14 on the Beaufort scale) is expected to make landfall between Sanmen and Cangnan in Zhejiang Province early on July 12. China’s State Flood Control Headquarters has activated Level 4 emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention across Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, and Sichuan. The Ministry of Emergency Management has also activated Level 4 geological disaster emergency response for Tianjin, Liaoning, and Jilin.

🤝 Li Qiang Meets North Korean Premier Pak Thae-song in Beijing

On the morning of July 11, Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with North Korean Premier Pak Thae-song at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Li noted that this year marks the start of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, with both sides exchanging views on deepening cooperation.

🇺🇸 Trump Confirms New Deal with Canada

Trump stated on social media that “the new deal is great and fair,” thanking the Canadian government. He had previously said “I could not accept the original deal.” Specific details of the agreement have not yet been disclosed.

🇮🇹 Northern Italy Drought Worsens, Agricultural Irrigation at Risk of Cutoff

Italian authorities warned that rivers, lakes, and reservoirs in the north are rapidly depleting due to persistent drought, with major rivers nearly running dry and agricultural irrigation facing imminent cutoff. The current situation is described as “extremely critical.”

🧭 Situation Assessment

Middle East geopolitical risk is releasing in pulses but quickly suppressed by official clarifications. Gold consolidating above 4100 reflects that the market has not fully priced out safe-haven demand, with the Saturday Iran deadline remaining the key short-term variable.

Next week’s intensive Fed speeches combined with the June CPI data will be the core window for shaping July FOMC expectations. Deutsche Bank’s specific mention of “rate hike leanings” warrants attention — if multiple officials signal hawkish stances, the USD and Treasury yields could spike in the short term, pressuring precious metals and risk assets.

Typhoon Bavi’s imminent landfall may temporarily disrupt supply chains and logistics along the southeast coast, but direct impact on US equities is limited. The worsening Italian drought could support agricultural commodity futures.

Trump’s new deal with Canada lacks disclosed details, making market impact assessment premature. However, Trump’s continued pattern of equating stock market performance with policy success suggests he remains motivated to maintain a market-friendly posture.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data & Events

  • Saturday: Iran’s response deadline to US ultimatum
  • Monday: Fed Governor Waller speech
  • Next Week: US June CPI data release
  • Next Week: China State Council press conference on H1 2026 trade data