π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-10 23:00 CST
Trump agrees to continue Iran talks but declares ceasefire over; gold plunges $35, oil spikes $2; Ukraine strikes multiple Russian oil facilities; France demands Iran open Hormuz Strait at UNSC
π Market Snapshot
| Instrument | Last | Change | Change% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold (XAUUSD) | 4092.61 | -31.32 | -0.76% |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | 71.63 | -0.04 | -0.06% |
Intraday spike: At 22:33 CST, after Trump declared the ceasefire over, gold plunged $35 and Brent/WTI spiked ~$2. Oil has since retraced to near-flat; gold remains depressed.
π₯ Key News This Hour
- Trump agrees to continue Iran talks, but ceasefire is over
President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran has requested to continue negotiations and the US has agreed. However, the US has “unequivocally informed them: the ceasefire is over.” The announcement triggered a $35 gold selloff and a $2 oil spike. Qatar had earlier dispatched a representative to Iran for mediation, while the US is reportedly keeping Israel out of the current situation.
- France pressures Iran at UN Security Council
France issued multiple demands: Iran must immediately and unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz, fully halt uranium enrichment, and allow IAEA inspectors access to nuclear facilities. France stated Iran has violated its commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and that reaching an agreement ensuring Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons is an urgent priority.
- Ukraine strikes multiple Russian oil facilities
Ukraine’s military announced strikes on an oil depot in Rostov, the Ilsky refinery, the Taganrog oil terminal, and an oil processing plant in Leningrad region, along with claiming hits on 18 Russian naval vessels.
- SK Hynix chairman: AI agent boom means massive memory demand
SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won expressed confidence in demand growth, stating the AI agent boom will require vast amounts of memory. He noted sufficient funds to support SK Hynix and hopes to expand ADR scale after achieving good returns.
- CSPC Pharmaceutical receives $25M milestone payment from AstraZeneca
CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093.HK) announced receipt of a $25 million R&D milestone payment from AstraZeneca, following an earlier upfront payment received on May 29.
π§ Market Assessment
The Middle East situation has entered a new phase β Trump decoupling negotiations from the ceasefire means military pressure and diplomacy will run in parallel. This “fight and talk” model increases the uncertainty premium but reduces the risk of all-out war in the near term.
Gold’s sharp drop reflects the market’s initial reaction that “ceasefire is over” actually reduces safe-haven demand β because talks continue, the extreme tail risk has been temporarily priced out. However, the Hormuz Strait blockade threat remains unresolved, limiting downside depth.
Oil’s spike-and-fade pattern suggests supply disruption fears are pulse-driven rather than persistent. The IEA’s warning of a supply-demand reversal amid geopolitical shocks needs more concrete disruption signals to push crude beyond its current range.
Ukraine’s sustained strikes on Russian oil infrastructure are accumulating supply-side risk, but market attention remains fixed on the Middle East, with the Russia-Ukraine factor playing a secondary role for now.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- Next week: US June CPI YoY (inflation data to directly influence Fed rate hike expectations)
- Next week: China State Council press conference on H1 2026 trade data
- Bank of Japan July quarterly outlook report (expected to raise GDP forecast, lower CPI forecast; likely to hold rates steady in July)