📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-10 13:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

Gold traded in a narrow range, dipping to an intraday low of 4108 before a modest bounce, remaining under pressure. Crude oil rose on Middle East geopolitical drivers, with Brent breaking above 76.70. Asia-Pacific equities diverged sharply — Korea’s KOSPI surged 5.6% to lead the region, while India’s NIFTY gained 1%.

🔥 Key News This Hour

🇯🇵 Japan Finance Minister Calls for Pension Funds to Boost Domestic Allocation Finance Minister Katayama publicly urged GPIF and other public pension funds to increase holdings of Japanese assets. OCBC, State Street, and other institutions believe this could trigger a “triple rally” in the yen, JGBs, and Japanese equities. JGB prices have already risen in response. (12:02)

🇰🇷 Korea KOSPI Soars 5.6%, Breaks 7,700 The KOSPI index surged 5.60% intraday, breaking through the 7,700 level — a rare magnitude of gain. Specific catalysts remain to be confirmed. (12:10)

🛰️ Middle East Tensions Escalate, Brent Up 1% In the Strait of Hormuz, the US military resumed escort operations after two consecutive days of strikes on Iran, successfully guiding a tanker convoy through the Oman route. Meanwhile, Russia’s Ilsky oil refinery caught fire after a drone attack. Dual supply concerns pushed Brent up 1% to 76.70. (12:17/12:22/12:47)

🏭 TSMC Targets CoWoS Capacity of 200K Wafers/Month by 2027 Supply chain sources indicate all TSMC new fab projects are running 24-hour construction. CoWoS monthly capacity is set to grow from ~30K wafers in 2024 to at least 200K by 2027. (12:14)

🇰🇿 Kazakhstan Gold & FX Reserves Drop 7.8% in June Kazakhstan central bank data shows net gold and FX reserves fell to $60.161 billion, down 7.8% MoM. In contrast, Poland’s central bank has bought 82 tons of gold this year, targeting 700 tons in reserves — a clear divergence in central bank gold operations. (12:12)

🇨🇳 China’s Long March 10B Achieves First-Stage Sea Recovery China successfully completed its first rocket first-stage sea platform recovery, conducted by the Long March 10B at the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site. (12:25)

🧭 Assessment

Middle East geopolitical risk is the core driver this hour — the simultaneous events of US resuming Hormuz escorts and a Russian refinery drone strike are compounding supply-side pressure on crude, supporting a near-term bullish bias for oil.

Japan’s pension “domestic reallocation” signal deserves serious attention. GPIF is one of the world’s largest pension funds — any substantive shift in asset allocation would have non-trivial marginal impact on the yen and JGBs. However, policy implementation takes time, and the sustainability of the yen’s short-term bounce remains questionable.

Korea’s KOSPI single-day 5.6% surge warrants scrutiny of the underlying catalyst. If tied to AI/semiconductor export data or geopolitical easing, the momentum may be more durable; if purely technical, watch for profit-taking.

Gold is consolidating at lower levels after its Q2 rout. The divergence in central bank operations (Poland buying, Kazakhstan reducing reserves) suggests the tug-of-war continues. The 4100 level is key near-term support.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

• Focus today: US June CPI data (due Monday July 14) — markets will gauge the Fed’s next move from this reading
• NATO summit continues, with Trump’s statements continuing to roil global market sentiment