📰 Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-07-10

📊 Market Snapshot

US equities closed broadly higher overnight, with the S&P 500 up 0.81% near all-time highs. A large bullish options bet on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) targets a breakout above prior highs. The Nikkei 225 surged 1.78%. Gold was flat around 4124, while crude oil edged up to 71.80. The dollar traded in narrow ranges against major currencies.

🔥 Key Overnight News

Geopolitics: Israel Flags New Iran Assassination Plot Against Trump

Israel has provided the US with new intelligence suggesting Iran may be plotting another assassination attempt against Trump (WSJ). Trump subsequently addressed the matter publicly. PM Netanyahu declared Israel “will not allow” Iran to acquire nuclear weapons and plans a significant defense budget increase over the next decade, focusing on air force and domestic military industry. Israel’s energy minister stressed the need to cooperate with the US to prevent Turkey from acquiring advanced weapons.

US-Iran: Diplomatic Window Still Open

A US official confirmed diplomatic efforts are ongoing behind the scenes, with Washington deliberately pausing after strikes to avoid escalation. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could last one week to a month. Oman publicly opposes transit fees for the Strait but left the door open for “voluntary service fees.”

Federal Reserve: Warsh Launches “Big Reform”

Fed Chair Warsh has assembled Nobel laureates, former central bank governors, Walmart’s ex-CEO, and top Silicon Valley VCs into five “reform strike teams.” The objective: overhaul the existing framework with sweeping reforms.

Tech & Semiconductors

• OpenAI’s No.2 executive Fidji Simo is stepping down from her full-time role due to deteriorating health, transitioning to a part-time advisory position
• Samsung Chairman Lee Jae-yong plans to meet NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang in the US in late July to discuss cooperation on the Gwangju semiconductor wafer fab
• SK Hynix ADR priced at 225,000 KRW per share, raising 40 trillion KRW (down from 43 trillion), listing today
• Nasdaq 100 sees large bullish options bet targeting new all-time highs

Other Headlines

• US FY2026 deficit reaches ~$1.4 trillion in the first nine months, up $35 billion YoY
• Japan June PPI: 7.1% YoY, beating the 6.8% forecast
• CFTC to reject CME’s 24-hour crude oil futures listing proposal
• iShares Silver Trust holdings decreased by 28.12 tonnes
• China urges all parties in the Ukraine crisis to cease fire and stop fighting

🧭 Situation Assessment

Middle East geopolitical risk remains the market’s core variable. Israel’s intelligence on an Iranian plot against Trump will intensify expectations of US-Iran confrontation, but the US has clearly signaled room for diplomacy — the probability of a full-scale conflict in the near term remains low.

Crude oil is oscillating around 71.80, with the unresolved Hormuz situation and today’s IEA monthly report poised to force a directional move.

The Fed reform narrative is heating up. Warsh’s “big reform” could reshape market expectations around Fed independence and policy frameworks — the medium-to-long-term implications are significant.

The Nasdaq 100 bullish options bet signals smart money betting on tech breaking to new highs, but the “Magnificent Seven” losing momentum is a red flag. In a diverging market, stock selection matters more than timing.

The Nikkei 225’s 1.78% surge reflects the dual logic of yen weakness and capital repatriation to Japan, but the hotter-than-expected PPI warrants caution — imported inflation pressure may constrain the BOJ’s policy space.

📅 Today’s Key Data Calendar

Today’s focus: the IEA monthly report’s assessment of crude supply and demand, and European CPI finals as a guide for the ECB’s next policy move.