π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-09 20:00 CST
Iran's IRGC announces gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz to 50% pre-war capacity with threats to US; spot gold breaks above $4,100; WTI crude retreats to $73.70; London asset manager dumps all US Treasuries for first time in nearly a decade
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4108.43 (+0.76%), surged from session low 4054 to break above 4117
- WTI Crude USOIL: 73.70 (-1.11%), Strait of Hormuz reopening progress weighs on oil
- Gold and crude diverge: geopolitical safe-haven demand drives gold, supply relief expectations pressure crude
π₯ Key News This Hour
Iran’s IRGC Announces Gradual Reopening of Strait of Hormuz
The IRGC stated it has established control over the Strait over the past two weeks and is progressively reopening the waterway, with capacity now restored to approximately 50% of pre-war levels. Simultaneously, it warned that US “terrorist military” adventurism and interference with shipping lanes would trigger a “devastating response” and seriously disrupt the gradual reopening process, endangering the interests of all nations using the Strait. The IRGC emphasized that foreign powers will receive no stake in the Strait.
Qatar Strongly Condemns Iran
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry condemned Iran’s frequent attacks on Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, reaffirmed support for the three nations’ sovereignty and security measures, and called for avoiding regional spillover from unjustified attacks while continuing diplomatic dialogue.
Fishing Port Bombed in Iran’s Bushehr Province
Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported that a fishing vessel dock in Benoud village, Asaluyeh city, Bushehr province was bombed. Jordan sounded alarms once again.
Russia-US Presidential Dialogue Established
Kremlin spokesman Peskov stated that Putin and Trump have established constructive dialogue, and Putin remains open to discussions with the US leader.
London Asset Manager Dumps All US Treasuries β First Time in Nearly a Decade
The fund manager cited an overheating US economy, greater Fed rate hike potential relative to Europe, and multiple risks including debt, inflation, and central bank independence, noting a clear mispricing between US and European interest rates.
ECB Minutes: Energy Shock Not Driving Wage Growth
ECB meeting minutes showed no evidence to date that the energy shock has led to rising wage growth, easing concerns about a wage-inflation spiral.
BofA Defends NVIDIA: Valuation Near 11-Year Low
Bank of America argues the market is overly concerned about HBM costs and ASIC competition, overlooking NVIDIA’s pricing power and supply chain advantages.
π§ Strategic Assessment
Gold’s breakout above $4,100 reflects mounting geopolitical premiums; the Strait of Hormuz may be reopening but Iran’s simultaneous threat of devastating retaliation means the situation is far from de-escalation.
Oil’s decline despite tensions suggests the market is pricing in the Strait reopening’s supply improvement, but with capacity at only 50% and a single US intervention capable of reversal, downside is limited.
The Iran-Qatar-Jordan tripartite tensions are escalating β Gulf Arab states are publicly aligning against Iran, a clear regional bloc formation trend that raises spillover risks.
The London asset manager’s full US Treasury exit is the most noteworthy capital-flow signal today β a near-decade first zero allocation reflecting deep skepticism about US fiscal and inflation trajectories.
The Putin-Trump dialogue channel opening offers potential relief on the Russia-Ukraine front, but the US-Iran trajectory continues to deteriorate β two geopolitical threads diverging.
If the ECB’s wage assessment holds, Europe has more room to cut rates than the US, further supporting the logic behind the US Treasury exit.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- July 10, 20:30 CST US June CPI (markets will closely scrutinize the inflation trajectory, directly influencing the Fed’s next move)
- Watch for Japan June PPI and China June CPI/PPI tomorrow morning