📰 Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00 CST) | 2026-07-09

📊 Market Snapshot

Gold barely moved, with geopolitical risk providing support but not significantly boosting prices. Crude oil showed a slight pullback in the quote, but spiked to a two-week high intraday driven by the US-Iran situation.

🔥 Key Overnight News

⚔️ US-Iran Conflict Escalates Dramatically

• Trump declared the US-Iran temporary ceasefire collapsed. US forces conducted airstrikes for a second consecutive night, expanding targets to include Iranian missile and drone facilities
• Trump said he has “seen through Iran” but stated there will not be a large-scale protracted war; emphasized “whenever they attack us, we hit back 20 times harder”
• Iran threatened “two-for-one” retaliation and warned it would close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked again
• Iran’s Shahr Airport was struck in the early hours, killing one firefighter; a railway bridge in northeastern Iran was also attacked
• CNN reported, citing a US official, that Trump was angered by the Strait of Hormuz not yet fully reopening and by Iran attacking ships during the NATO summit
• NATO summit concluded; Trump accused allies of “standing by and doing nothing” on Iran, but now they are “eager to help”

🏛️ Fed Minutes: Inflation Risks + AI Variable

The first FOMC minutes under Chair Warsh were released. Officials warned that forces driving prices higher are becoming more widespread, and inflation risks could force rates higher. The AI investment boom is emerging as a new variable in rate decisions — surging capex could simultaneously boost growth and inflation, complicating the policy path.

🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: New Developments

Ukrainian drones struck nine Russian “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov; two Russian tankers were damaged by drone attacks. The US will authorize Ukraine to manufacture Patriot systems domestically, with Trump saying “don’t complain we didn’t give enough anymore.”

💻 Tech & AI

• Bain Capital completed its full exit from flash memory maker Kioxia, with shares surging over 4000% since IPO driven by the AI boom
• AI chip startup Positron is in talks for a ~$750M two-stage funding round, with valuation potentially reaching $5B
• Zhipu (02513.HK) plans to raise over HKD 31.4B via share placement at ~13% discount

🏠 Other

• UK June RICS House Price Balance: -33 vs. -30 expected (prior -34)
• Magnitude 5.1 earthquake near Yibin, Sichuan, China
• Pentagon urged Latin American countries to increase defense budgets

🧭 Situation Assessment

The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire is the biggest overnight variable. US airstrikes continued for a second night with an expanded target scope, while Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz — the confrontation has entered a new phase.

The crude oil market has not fully priced in a Strait of Hormuz disruption. If the situation continues to escalate, oil prices have further upside potential.

The Fed minutes reveal an important contradiction: the AI investment boom is boosting long-term growth expectations while simultaneously creating inflationary pressure, making the rate path even more uncertain.

Gold is oscillating between geopolitical risk support and interest rate concerns. The current level around 4076 reflects a market still in wait-and-see mode, awaiting clearer signals.

The strike on Russia’s shadow fleet in the Russia-Ukraine theater deserves attention, as it could affect Russia’s actual crude export capacity.

Overall, geopolitical risk premiums are rising across the board, but the market has not yet entered panic mode — this warrants vigilance, because once a trigger point is breached, volatility across asset classes will amplify sharply.

📅 Today’s Key Data Calendar

The Jin10 calendar has not yet listed today’s upcoming releases. Standard Thursday watch items:

• US Initial Jobless Claims (week ending July 4) — 20:30 CST
• US EIA Natural Gas Storage — 22:30 CST

Continue monitoring US-Iran developments and Strait of Hormuz transit status throughout the session.