πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4117.24 (+0.26%) | Range 4093.99-4126.67
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 72.07 (+0.09%) | Range 71.59-72.49
  • China’s ChiNext turns positive after falling over 2%; cloud computing sector leads A-shares
  • Lithium carbonate drops to 163,450 CNY/ton (-250 CNY/ton)

πŸ”₯ Key Headlines This Hour

  • US-Iran Tensions Surge: US reinstated oil sanctions on Iran and launched a new round of strikes. Iran’s Armed Forces vowed a “resolute response” and declared sovereignty over parts of the Strait of Hormuz. The US military raised the strait’s transit threat level to “Severe.” Iran’s chief negotiator stated “the era of bullying and extortion is over.”

  • PBoC Adds Gold for 20th Consecutive Month: Despite gold’s pullback from highs and massive ETF outflows, the PBoC’s sustained purchases signal long-term confidence.

  • Fed June Minutes Due Tonight: Chair Walsh insists on “no forward guidance.” Markets are betting rate hike expectations are overpriced. Julius Baer expects the Fed is unlikely to hike further, with a weaker USD supporting gold.

  • BHP Port Strike Warning: Union announces 8-hour work stoppage at the Port Hedland iron ore export hub on July 16, which exports approximately A$120 million worth of iron ore daily.

  • Le Pen Announces 2027 French Presidential Bid: Campaign to launch soon; she will continue to appeal her prior conviction.

  • TSMC to Inject $20B into US Subsidiary: For 12-inch wafer fab and advanced packaging facilities β€” the sixth approved US investment.

  • Tesla-SpaceX Merger? JPMorgan Says Hurdles Underestimated: Multi-jurisdictional regulatory approvals and governance structure issues are key challenges.

🧭 Market Assessment

The US-Iran conflict is evolving from “ceasefire breakdown” to “full confrontation.” The Strait of Hormuz threat level raised to “Severe” is this week’s most critical warning signal

If strait passage is disrupted, oil could quickly break above $75; if tensions ease, expect a retreat toward $70

Gold faces a tug-of-war between near-term ETF outflows ($18B) and long-term central bank buying β€” the PBoC’s 20-month streak is not to be ignored

Tonight’s Fed minutes: if Walsh’s hawkish stance is confirmed, USD strength could pressure gold near-term; a dovish tilt would support a gold rebound

A-share AI computing stocks saw concentrated inflows today β€” Unisplendour, Zhongji Innolight, and Inspur led institutional buying, with cloud computing emerging as a structural bright spot

If the BHP strike proceeds as scheduled, iron ore gets a near-term bullish catalyst β€” watch the July 16 window

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • RBNZ Monetary Policy Press Conference (underway)
  • Fed June FOMC Minutes (July 9, 2:00 AM Beijing Time)
  • US Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Data (July 9)