πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): $4,172.26 (+0.19%), rebounded from intraday low $4,116.68, range $58
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): $69.40 (+0.77%), intraday range $68.83–$69.98

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. Trump Visits Turkey, Sends Multiple Signals β€” Trump delivered remarks at the Turkish Presidential Palace, stating “we will discuss trade and military matters today.” On selling F-35s to Turkey, he said “that’s a decision we’re going to make.” On withdrawing European troops, he noted “we have to see what happens,” while emphasizing NATO allies should contribute more.

  2. Fed’s Williams: Inflation Still High, No Forward Guidance β€” NY Fed President Williams said inflation remains “still quite high,” though falling energy prices are good news. He stressed that “given the uncertainty, providing clear forward guidance is not appropriate,” and monetary policy direction depends on data. He also expects continued strong investment in AI.

  3. US May Trade Deficit Widens to Largest in Over a Year β€” The May goods and services trade deficit reached $77.6 billion, widening 42.2% month-over-month. Exports fell 3.2% while imports rose, with the deterioration exceeding expectations.

  4. Saudi-UAE Bank Transfers Face Abnormal Delays β€” Cross-border transfers between Saudi Arabia and UAE are experiencing delays, rejections, and payment freezes, with some businesses rerouting through other jurisdictions. Competition between the two nations has intensified across finance and AI, making this a rare signal of financial friction in the Middle East.

  5. Huawei Pura 90 International Edition Reportedly Supports 5G β€” Huawei announced a flagship product launch in Kuala Lumpur on July 14, with the Pura 90 international edition reportedly supporting 5G, signaling an accelerated recovery in overseas mobile business.

🧭 Market Outlook

The Fed’s hawkish stance remains intact. Williams’ refusal to provide forward guidance implies the September rate decision hinges entirely on the next two months of data β€” markets are entering a high-volatility “data-driven” regime.

The sharp deterioration in the US trade deficit, combined with Trump’s trade negotiation signals during his Turkey visit, could amplify market concerns over escalating tariff policies.

The Saudi-UAE bank transfer anomaly is a signal easily overlooked but worth monitoring β€” if financial friction between the Middle East’s two largest economies persists, it could affect energy trade settlements and regional stability.

Gold rebounded from an intraday low of $4,116 to $4,172, with near-term downside momentum weakening. However, the $4,200 level remains key resistance, and a sustained bull run is unlikely before the Fed signals a clear pivot.

Crude oil found support near $69. Typhoons Bavi and Maysak may temporarily disrupt supply expectations, but demand-side factors remain dominant.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • July 8 (Wed): US May JOLTS Job Openings, FOMC June Meeting Minutes
  • July 9 (Thu): US June CPI (the week’s most important release)
  • July 10 (Fri): US June PPI, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary)