πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4164.43 (-0.25%), intraday range 4144.81–4202.79
  • WTI Crude USOIL: 68.17 (-1.35%), broke below 69 intraday
  • Shanghai Gold T+D: 907.0 CNY/g (flat)
  • Southbound net inflow: 17 billion CNY

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

WTI crude falls over 1%, Iran war premium continues to fade. Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing, OPEC+ keeps raising output, and oil prices have fallen back to pre-war levels. Latest polls show 58% of voters believe the Iran operation was “not worth it,” with Trump’s approval rating dropping to 36%. Iran’s “Strait card” is rapidly losing value.

SK Hynix sets $29 billion Nasdaq IPO for July 10. Potentially the largest foreign company IPO in history, bringing the AI chip battle to Nasdaq. SK Hynix also plans to raise 43 trillion KRW through ADR listing.

NVIDIA Kyber NVL144 reportedly delayed significantly to 2028. PCB manufacturing bottlenecks are holding up AI racks, with delivery pushed back by over 12 months, dealing a blow to AI hardware supply chain confidence.

JPMorgan slashes gold price target: from $6,000 to $4,500. The most cautious stance among major banks, though the bank acknowledges current prices already reflect significant pessimism.

Goldman Sachs calls for 165 USD/JPY, yen bear thesis escalates. US-Japan rate differentials, fiscal pressures, and the BOJ’s slow pace of rate hikes are collectively driving yen weakness. Former Japan FX chief Yamasaki counters that the yen is undervalued by 20% and warns shorts to watch for intervention risks.

First UN Global AI Governance Dialogue held in Geneva. Secretary-General Guterres warned that AI is developing faster than anyone can keep up, calling for unified global rules. Tencent Hunyuan also released its Hy3 model today, with significant improvements in reasoning and agent capabilities.

Chinese Navy successfully conducts submarine-launched strategic missile test. Foreign Ministry also urged the US to immediately stop its blockade of Cuba, and dismissed German allegations of “espionage cultivation in China” as baseless slander.

German Q2 commercial real estate financing sentiment deteriorates sharply. BF.direkt sentiment index plunged from -9.74 in Q1 to -26.69, impacted by Iran war-driven inflation and rising interest rates.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The crude oil market is rapidly repricing Iran conflict risk, with WTI breaking below $68 signaling that the market has largely priced in the fading war premium.

With Hormuz Strait traffic recovering and OPEC+ continuing to increase output, oil prices still have room to decline in the near term.

Gold faces dual pressure from investment bank target cuts and weakening safe-haven demand, but finds support around $4,160.

JPMorgan’s cut from $6,000 to $4,500 is dramatic in magnitude, but the absolute target remains above current prices.

The SK Hynix IPO will be one of the biggest market events this week, with the $29 billion financing scale worth watching for its impact on semiconductor sector fund flows.

The yen bull-bear battle is intensifying: Goldman at 165 vs former FX chief at 130 β€” a 35-yen gap reflecting massive market pricing divergence.

The AI narrative is undergoing a subtle shift β€” from “job-killing” panic toward pragmatic governance discussions, while NVIDIA’s hardware delays remind the market that AI infrastructure is not all smooth sailing.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • No major US economic data releases today (first trading day after July 4 Independence Day holiday, thin trading expected)
  • This week: Wednesday FOMC June meeting minutes, Thursday US June CPI