πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • XAUUSD (Gold): 4174.66 | +48.64 (+1.18%) | Day High 4195.44 / Low 4122.72
  • USOIL (WTI Crude): 68.73 | +0.31 (+0.45%) | Day High 69.23 / Low 68.05

Gold surged 1.18% intraday, touching 4195 before a slight pullback. Escalating geopolitical risks combined with uncertainty ahead of next week’s FOMC minutes continue to drive safe-haven inflows. Crude edged higher but lacked momentum, with OPEC+’s August production increase of 188K bpd capping upside.

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

Israel Constitutional Crisis β€” PM Refuses Supreme Court Ruling Netanyahu unanimously decided not to comply with a Supreme Court ruling, an unprecedented event in Israeli history. The constitutional crisis is sharply intensifying ahead of October elections. Markets should monitor potential escalation in the Middle East and its impact on safe-haven assets.

Iran Resumes Maritime Trade with Qatar After a ~5-month disruption, maritime transport between Iran’s Deyr port and Qatar’s Al Ruwais port has resumed. Separately, Iran’s IRGC vessels reportedly diverted six ships from Oman shipping lanes. Middle East geopolitical dynamics are becoming more complex.

Russia Open to Peace Talks, Expects US Mediation Kremlin spokesman Peskov stated Russia is open to negotiations while noting Russian forces are establishing a security buffer zone at the border. Mixed signals, but diplomatic windows appear to be reopening.

Germany Raises 2027 Borrowing Plan on Weaker Tax Revenue Net new borrowing for 2027 is planned at €118 billion (~$135 billion), up ~7% from April estimates. Rising interest rates have increased debt servicing costs, highlighting fiscal pressures.

Houthi Attack on Yemen Government Forces Kills 14 The attack occurred in Hodeidah province along the Red Sea coast, as regional security conditions continue to deteriorate.

Next Week Spotlight: FOMC Minutes + China CPI The Fed’s June meeting minutes are the headline event, with markets searching for rate hike clues from Warsh’s debut meeting. China’s June CPI data will also be released.

🧭 Strategic Assessment

Gold breaking above 4170 shows strong short-term momentum, but the 4195-4200 zone presents technical resistance; expect high-level consolidation ahead of next week’s FOMC minutes.

Israel’s constitutional crisis is tonight’s biggest wildcard β€” if the situation spirals out of control, gold could push higher and crude would also receive risk premium support.

With OPEC+’s August production increase now finalized, crude’s fundamentally bearish backdrop remains intact; expect range-bound trading below $70.

If next week’s Fed minutes signal rate hikes, a stronger USD would pressure commodities, though geopolitical risks may partially offset this.

Germany’s growing fiscal pressure and rising eurozone economic uncertainty pose potential headwinds for the euro.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Monday: Swiss Unemployment, Eurozone Sentix Confidence, Eurozone PPI
  • Wednesday: FOMC June Meeting Minutes (High Impact)
  • Thursday: China June CPI, PPI
  • Friday: SK Hynix ADR Nasdaq Listing