πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4,174.66 | +48.64 (+1.18%) | Range 4,122.72 – 4,195.44
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 68.73 | +0.31 (+0.45%) | Range 68.05 – 69.23

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

OPEC+ announces 188K bpd production increase for August, with Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman participating. The group reaffirmed its commitment to market stability. Next meeting scheduled for August 2.

Trump: No US-Iran hostilities until Khamenei’s funeral concludes, with negotiations paused for one week. “They’re all there. One strike could take them all out, but we won’t do that.” IRGC vessels reportedly diverted six ships from Oman shipping lanes.

Iraq signs five-year oil field management deal with Halliburton, targeting 150K bpd at Bin Umar field and 80-100K bpd at Sinbad field.

Germany plans to increase 2027 net borrowing to €118 billion, up approximately 7% from April estimates.

Houthi attack kills 14 Yemeni government soldiers, keeping Red Sea tensions elevated.

🧭 Situation Assessment

Gold surged 1.18% past $4,174, driven primarily by Middle East geopolitics β€” the US-Iran temporary ceasefire does not equal de-escalation, with high uncertainty after Khamenei’s funeral concludes.

OPEC+ 188K bpd increase is modest and fully offset by geopolitical risk premium β€” oil rose only 0.45%.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest variable β€” IRGC vessels diverting ships from Oman routes is a concerning signal.

Germany’s expanded borrowing plan signals accelerating European fiscal expansion, with structural implications for EUR and sovereign bonds.

This week ahead: Fed minutes (Warsh’s debut internal divisions), US-Iran negotiation follow-up.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • Jul 6: Fed June meeting minutes release
  • Jul 7-8: Multiple Fed officials speaking
  • Aug 2: Next OPEC+ meeting