πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

(Weekend β€” markets closed. Data from Friday’s close)

  • Spot Gold XAUUSD: $4,174.66 (+1.18%) β€” geopolitical risk premium driving gold above 4170
  • WTI Crude USOIL: $68.73 (+0.45%) β€” modest uptick, Hormuz situation remains fluid

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

🌍 Geopolitics

  • Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei’s funeral enters day two; new Supreme Leader Mojtaba has yet to make any public appearance, fueling speculation over his whereabouts
  • Israeli forces shell the town of Deir Siriane in southern Lebanon’s Nabatieh region
  • Khamenei’s funeral spans five cities across Iran and Iraq, with burial scheduled for July 9

πŸ“ˆ China Markets

  • China Merchants Shipping H1 net profit expected up 214%-248%, driven by elevated international tanker freight rates
  • Tianshan Aluminum H1 net profit expected up 102%, with both volume and price rising for aluminum products
  • Olide H1 net profit expected up 492%-604%, as equipment business competitive moat deepens
  • CITIC Securities: K-shaped divergence narrowing as narratives swing back; two catalysts may drive non-AI sector recovery
  • China Galaxy Securities: oil prices gradually declining, Q3 travel chain poised for recovery

πŸ‡°πŸ‡· South Korea

  • South Korea plans to establish a Future Fund using windfall semiconductor tax revenue, targeting growth engines and support for younger generations

🧭 Situation Assessment

Gold breaking above $4,170 is a direct reflection of geopolitical risk premiums, with Iran’s power vacuum during the Khamenei funeral as the core driver

Mojtaba’s continued absence adds uncertainty to Iran’s internal power dynamics; failure to appear publicly before the July 9 burial would further heighten market concerns over Iranian political stability

Israel is exploiting the Iranian leadership transition window to escalate military operations in southern Lebanon, putting multiple Middle Eastern fronts under simultaneous pressure

WTI crude’s muted gains relative to gold suggest the market is currently pricing geopolitical safe-haven demand over supply disruption β€” but any development around the Strait of Hormuz could rapidly reshape this dynamic

A-share mid-year earnings previews are rolling in, with shipping, non-ferrous metals, and pharma sectors posting standout results β€” the non-AI sector recovery narrative is gaining fundamental support

This week, watch for the Fed’s June meeting minutes and ECB minutes, as markets hunt for clues on year-end rate hike prospects

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • Jul 6–12: Fed June meeting minutes, ECB minutes release
  • Jul 9: Khamenei burial day β€” watch for Mojtaba’s potential public appearance
  • This week: China June CPI/PPI, US June CPI