π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-05 13:00 CST
Trump emphasizes American exceptionalism at Independence 250th celebration; Medvedev calls Strait of Hormuz Iran's other trump card as ships reroute; Nomura says memory industry still severely supply-short, AI demand not peaked
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4174.66 (+1.18%), intraday high 4195.44 / low 4122.72, safe-haven flows pushing gold toward the 4200 level
- WTI Crude USOIL: 68.73 (+0.45%), range 68.05β69.23, Hormuz tensions supporting oil but gains limited
- US markets closed (Sunday), futures open Monday
π₯ Key News This Hour
Trump Independence 250th Speech: Amid record heat and thunderstorms, Trump delivered a speech in Washington emphasizing “American exceptionalism,” declaring he would “never let America decline.” Meanwhile, the Trump administration plans to repeal 702 additional federal regulations, doubling down on deregulation.
Medvedev Points to Strait of Hormuz: Russia’s Deputy Security Council Chairman, after attending Khamenei’s farewell ceremony, stated that while Iran lacks nuclear weapons, the Strait of Hormuz is a trump card no less powerful. HFI Research notes that over the past 24 hours, many vessels have switched from the Oman route to the Iranian side of the strait.
Nomura: Memory Industry Still Severely Supply-Short: Nomura Securities reports that the core issue in global memory remains severe supply shortage, with AI-driven structural demand growth yet to peak. Recent investor concerns about oversupply are significantly overblown.
Uber Suspends European Food Delivery Expansion: Per FT, Uber has dropped plans to launch in 5 of 7 originally targeted countries this year, still seeking to acquire its largest European competitor.
France’s UK Defense Fund Block Backfires: France’s attempt to exclude the UK from the EU’s β¬150 billion defense fund has backfired, costing France low-interest loans intended for Franco-British weapons projects.
China-Russia “Maritime Joint-2026” Exercise: Russian naval vessels have arrived in Qingdao, with both sides’ forces assembled. A joint Pacific cruise will follow the exercise.
Diplomatic Flurry in Tehran: Hamas delegation, Yemen’s deputy PM, and Serbian delegation all gathered in Tehran for Khamenei’s funeral and met with Iran’s foreign minister, signaling a rapid reshaping of Middle East diplomacy.
π§ Assessment
Gold has strong short-term momentum after breaking 4170. The 4195-4200 zone is key technical resistance β a breakout opens further upside. The Hormuz situation is the core driver for gold; watch for Iran policy shifts after Khamenei’s funeral.
Crude is supported by geopolitical premium but lacks demand-side follow-through. The 68-70 range-bound pattern remains intact. If the Iranian-side shipping reroute becomes the norm, Hormuz transit fee negotiations become the next focal point.
For Monday’s US market open, watch two things: whether the post-weak-NFP rate-hike pullback continues, and whether the memory/AI sector sees sentiment recovery after Nomura’s bullish call.
Geopolitical risk is concentrated in the Middle East β the policy direction of new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei after the funeral is the key variable, and Strait of Hormuz tensions are unlikely to ease in the near term.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- This week’s focus: FOMC minutes (internal divisions in Warsh’s debut meeting), ECB minutes
- Fed officials’ intensive speeches β market hunting for year-end rate hike clues
- Middle East: Khamenei’s funeral continues for a week; watch for policy signals from the new Supreme Leader