πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4174.66 (+1.18%), intraday high 4195.44
  • WTI Crude USOIL: 68.73 (+0.45%), narrow range

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

Khamenei Funeral Diplomacy in Full Swing

Yemen’s Vice Premier, a Hamas delegation, and a Serbian delegation have successively arrived in Tehran to attend Khamenei’s funeral, each meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. Hamas reaffirmed support for the Palestinian cause. Trump previously stated no US-Iran hostilities until the funeral concludes.

China-Russia Announce “Joint Sea-2026” Military Drills

Chinese and Russian navies will hold joint exercises near Qingdao in July, followed by joint patrols in the Pacific. Russian vessels arrived in Qingdao on the 5th. Separately, a Chinese naval fleet arrived in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam for a goodwill visit.

Trump Attends US 250th Anniversary, Previews Evening Speech

Trump arrived at the National Mall in Washington for “Salute to America” celebrations, expected to speak around 11 PM Beijing time, declaring he “won’t let a little rain disrupt the 250th anniversary.”

Nomura: Memory Chip Supply Critically Tight, AI Demand Not Peaking

Nomura argues market fears of oversupply are overblown. AI-driven structural demand growth has yet to peak, with the core issue remaining insufficient supply.

Trump Administration Plans to Repeal 702 Federal Regulations

The White House semi-annual regulatory agenda sets a new record for proposed deregulation measures, intensifying the push to reduce federal regulatory burdens.

🧭 Market Assessment

Gold broke above 4170 and approached the 4195 resistance zone. Intensive diplomatic engagement around Khamenei’s funeral provides near-term geopolitical premium, but Trump has explicitly committed to a ceasefire until the funeral ends β€” beware of premium retracement risk.

Crude oil is influenced by both Middle East tensions and Iran-Japan crude trade negotiations. Strait of Hormuz toll negotiations remain ongoing with Oman’s ambiguous stance adding uncertainty. Short-term oil likely to hold the 68-70 range.

This week’s Fed minutes and NFP data are the key variables. After the cooling NFP print, rate hike expectations have receded β€” dovish minutes could further pressure the USD and support gold.

China-Russia joint drills combined with the naval visit to Vietnam signal escalating geopolitical maneuvering, but have not yet touched market-sensitive thresholds and do not constitute independent trading signals for now.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Week of 7/6-7/12: FOMC minutes (Warsh’s debut internal details), ECB minutes
  • Watch: NFP follow-through impact, year-end rate hike expectations shift