πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • XAUUSD Spot Gold: 4,181.11 (+1.39%), intraday high 4,195.39, low 4,121.22. Strong breakout above 4,180, nearly $60 gain intraday
  • USOIL WTI Crude: 68.37 (-0.08%), intraday high 69.23, low 68.13. Nearly flat as Hormuz shipping recovery caps oil
  • Gold rallies unidirectionally, upside opening up; crude pressured sideways as geopolitical risk premium fades

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

Gold surges 1.39%, institutions see upside channel reopening. Spot gold rallied from 4,121 to near 4,195 intraday, closing nearly $60 higher. Institutional strategists say Fed rate hike expectations are overblown, gold’s valuation premium has largely been erased, and there’s room for recovery this year β€” “easily breaking $5,000” is not out of the question.

Bank of China resumes 5-year large-denomination CDs. Against the backdrop of medium-to-long-term CDs nearly disappearing, Bank of China officially launched its first batch of 2026 personal large CDs on July 1, covering maturities from 1 month to 5 years. This is a significant shift in banking system liquidity signals.

Premier Li Qiang: accelerate modern industrial system and tech self-reliance. At the July 1 State Council Party Group meeting, Li called for stronger measures in building a modern industrial system, accelerating tech self-reliance, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and opening-up.

Hormuz shipping volume triples, pressuring oil prices. Even with ~80 uncleared mines still in the strait, weekly transit records have reached 258 vessels, far exceeding the crisis low of just 41. Shippers are rushing to move cargo during the peace window, and expectations of Iranian supply recovery continue to weigh on crude.

German Chancellor to discuss NATO contributions at summit. Merz said he will raise the issue of Germany and Europe increasing NATO contributions at next week’s NATO summit, responding to Trump’s remarks.

Japan spring wage talks conclude: third consecutive year above 5%. Japan’s largest union federation Rengo released final statistics showing 5,368 companies averaging a 5.01% raise, paving the way for a BOJ rate hike before year-end.

Lagarde does not rule out early departure from ECB. The ECB just completed a rate hike last month, and the US-Iran ceasefire has brought oil back to pre-war levels with inflation pressures significantly easing β€” objectively creating space for Lagarde to leave early and join the French election debate.

India Apr-Jun goods exports up ~15%, services up ~11%. India’s trade minister announced strong export figures. Meanwhile, RBI data shows gold reserves fell to $102.54B as of June 26 (previous: $107.93B).

EU imposes sanctions on six Russian individuals. The EU Council announced restrictive measures targeting those involved in chemical weapons R&D, particularly Epibatidine.

BSE, SSE, SZSE simultaneously amend refinancing rules. All three exchanges released draft amendments to securities issuance review rules for public comment on the same day, covering simplified procedures, shelf offerings, and lock-up private placement optimizations.

🧭 Strategic Assessment

Gold rallied 1.39% today, technically breaking through the 4,180 key level. Coupled with institutional “return to fair value” narratives, short-term bullish sentiment dominates. But watch for profit-taking pressure at the 4,200 round-number resistance.

Crude remains pressured as Hormuz shipping recovers, consolidating around $68. Geopolitical premium has almost entirely evaporated β€” the next move depends on the demand side, with next week’s China and US CPI data as key variables.

China’s policy signals are dense: bank CD resumption implies liquidity easing expectations, the State Council emphasizes tech self-reliance, and all three exchanges simultaneously amend refinancing rules. The July policy window is opening.

Japan’s third consecutive 5%+ wage hike, combined with Lagarde’s potential early departure, points to increasing global central bank policy divergence: Japan moving toward tightening, Europe potentially changing leadership, and the Fed holding steady β€” the carry trade logic faces restructuring.

On geopolitics, Hormuz shipping recovery plus Khamenei funeral arrangements signal Iran entering a transition period, with Middle East risk premium continuing to recede. Next week’s NATO summit is the next geopolitical watchpoint.

⏰ Key Upcoming Data

  • Next week: China June forex & gold reserves
  • Next week: Fed monetary policy meeting minutes
  • Next week: China June CPI, US June CPI
  • Next week: USDA July WASDE report
  • July 9-11: Indian PM Modi visits Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand