πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4172.03 (+1.17%), daily high 4195.39, low 4121.22. Gold resumes its upward trajectory after valuation premium correction, briefly approaching the 4200 level intraday
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 68.67 (+0.36%), daily high 69.23, low 68.13. Oil remains in a narrow range as Hormuz shipping resumption brings prices back to pre-war levels

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

ECB’s Muller Speaks Extensively β€” Confirmed the June rate hike was the correct decision, said the risk balance is in a reasonable position, and made no commitment regarding the September meeting. Emphasized that falling oil prices will ease services inflation pressure, and that Hormuz Strait shipping resumption is good news for the world. Muller also revealed that June growth data was weak and sluggish, and he does not expect a significant Q2 rebound.

Iran’s Tehran Airspace Fully Closed on July 6 β€” Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization announced that Tehran airspace will be fully closed on July 6 for the funeral of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei, with all flights grounded. This is another major event for Iran following the US-Iran ceasefire.

Monaco Attack Suspect Identity Revealed β€” Monaco prosecutors confirmed the suspect is Ukrainian, approximately 30 years old, with last official residence in Germany. The vehicle involved carried German license plates and entered Monaco via Italy and other countries.

India Investigating Tata Electronics Data Leak β€” India’s IT Minister confirmed an investigation into the Tata Electronics data breach involving leaked documents of Apple’s unreleased iPhone 18 Pro. This marks India’s first official response to the incident.

China’s Vice Finance Minister Meets Eurasia Group β€” Liao Min met with Eurasia Group Honorary Chairman Kupchan in Beijing on July 1 to exchange views on China-US economic and trade relations and macroeconomic conditions (reported July 3).

China NMPA Proposes Fast-Track for Cell & Gene Therapies β€” Plans to include qualified cell and gene therapy drugs in the 30-day innovative drug clinical trial review and approval channel, now open for public comment.

🧭 Situation Assessment

Gold surged 1.17% intraday, driven by a confluence of ECB Governing Council member comments and geopolitical uncertainty. After undergoing a valuation correction, gold has regained upward momentum, and the market may be overpricing expectations of further Fed rate hikes.

ECB’s Muller signaled key messages β€” acknowledging weak June growth and not expecting a Q2 rebound, while emphasizing inflation relief from falling oil prices. This suggests the ECB may pause rate hikes in September, consistent with the “no commitment” wording.

The resumption of Hormuz Strait shipping is this week’s biggest macro variable. Weekly transits have surged threefold from the nadir to 258 vessels, though approximately 80 uncleared mines remain. Shipping restoration is bringing oil prices back to pre-war levels, with marginal easing of inflation pressure.

Khamenei’s funeral on July 6 is a key event to watch. The full closure of Tehran airspace carries significant symbolic weight and may influence the next phase of Middle East geopolitical developments.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

Next week’s highlights: China June forex and gold reserves, FOMC June meeting minutes, China and US June CPI, USDA July WASDE report. No major data releases this weekend.