📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-03 17:01 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

Gold staged a powerful intraday rally, briefly touching $4,195. A veteran strategist noted that gold’s valuation premium has largely been erased and the metal has room for a recovery rally this year, potentially “easily breaking $5,000.” Crude oil edged higher despite recovering Hormuz Strait traffic, though Citi warns prices could fall to $60 by year-end.

⚠️ US markets are closed or in holiday mode for Independence Day (July 4, observed Friday). Trading volumes will be significantly reduced.

🔥 Key News This Hour

Iran: Both sides signal de-escalation, but reversal risk remains Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf stated the US and Israel failed to achieve any war objectives and that military action against Iran has failed. However, Iran’s chief negotiator simultaneously warned that if the US and Israel do not fulfill their commitments, Iran will resume “appropriate measures.” Weekly Hormuz Strait transits have surged more than 3x from crisis lows to 258 vessels, though approximately 80 mines remain uncleared. Citi sees the Hormuz shock fading, projecting Brent could fall to $60 by year-end.

Japan likely intervened in FX; wage growth supports rate hikes ING analysts suggest Japanese authorities likely intervened in the yen on Thursday, with potential further action during Friday’s holiday-thinned liquidity. Japan’s largest labor union Rengo reported that companies agreed to wage hikes exceeding 5% for the third consecutive year, supporting the BOJ’s rate normalization path.

China June passenger car retail down 21% YoY, NEVs down 7% Preliminary CPCA data: June passenger car retail reached 1.651 million units, down 21% YoY; NEV retail reached 1.037 million units, down 7% YoY. Overall auto market remains weak but NEV penetration continues to climb.

CATL invests in humanoid robotics startup CATL’s wholly-owned subsidiary has taken a stake in Shanghai RoboParty Technology, signaling the battery giant’s expansion into the humanoid robotics space.

Hangzhou Cable: H1 net profit expected up 852%–958% Driven by volume and price increases in fiber optic products, with estimated H1 net profit of ¥360–400 million.

Germany June auto registrations: Tesla +317.6%, BYD +273.7% Germany’s June new passenger car registrations rose 15.7% YoY to 296,378 units. Tesla captured 2.6% market share, BYD 2.1%.

HKEX partners with China Bond Pricing Center for treasury futures Hong Kong Futures Exchange has reached a data licensing agreement with China Bond Pricing Center, paving the way for the launch of 5-year China government bond futures in Hong Kong.

UK services PMI records steepest decline in nearly 3.5 years S&P Global data shows UK services business activity contracted at the fastest pace in nearly three and a half years, with new orders falling for a fourth consecutive month.

🧭 Strategic Assessment

Gold’s breakout above $4,180 carries strong momentum. Iran’s de-escalation rhetoric remains fragile, and with US holiday-thinned liquidity, gold is biased to the upside in the near term.

Oil faces two opposing forces: supply relief from recovering Hormuz traffic vs. persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Citi’s year-end $60 call depends entirely on sustained de-escalation in the Gulf.

The BOJ’s rate hike narrative is self-reinforcing — three years of 5%+ wage growth, potential covert intervention weakening the yen, and rising inflation expectations. JPY volatility likely persists into the July meeting.

China’s June auto data is broadly weak, but NEV penetration remains high, confirming the accelerating structural decline of traditional ICE vehicles.

US earnings estimates are being revised up at the fastest post-COVID pace, with analysts warning of “overheating” risk. When everyone is bullish, danger often lurks.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

Next week’s focal point is US CPI. If inflation continues to cool, September rate cut expectations will surge, benefiting both gold and risk assets.