Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-03 15:00 CST
Tesla Q2 deliveries beat at 480k but shares plunge 7.5% post-market, France May manufacturing output -1% m/m well below expectations, Iran acting defense minister warns of response to violations, Chinese auto brands surpass Japan in European market share for first time
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4172.91 (+1.19%), pulled back to ~4170 after hitting 4195.39 intraday high; 4200 resistance confirmed again; intraday range of $74
- WTI Crude USOIL: 68.89 (+0.68%), slightly below last hour’s 69.20; Citi’s $60 target capping bullish sentiment
- Japan/Korea Close: Nikkei 225 +1.47% to 69,744; KOSPI +5.76% to 8,088, sharp rebound from panic selloff
- A-Shares: Shanghai/Shenzhen turnover above 3 trillion yuan for 15th consecutive session; GigaDevice (ε ζεζ°) turnover topped 40 billion yuan, down 1.05%
- USD/JPY: Briefly dropped over 50 pips before quickly rebounding to 160.8; volatile trading ahead of US Independence Day
π₯ Key News This Hour
- Tesla Q2 deliveries beat, but shares plunge 7.5% post-market: Total Q2 deliveries 480,126, +25% YoY, well above analyst estimates. Market still pricing Tesla as a pure automaker; Semi/Cybercab/Optimus narratives fail to convince; classic “sell the news” reaction.
- Chinese passenger cars surpass Japan in European market share for first time: Historic inflection point. Combined with June NEV wholesale estimate of 1.51 million units (+22% YoY), Chinese EV export competitiveness continues to be validated.
- France May manufacturing output -1% m/m: Expected -0.3%, prior 0.4% β a significant miss. Industrial output -0.1% m/m (better than expected), but 3.2% y/y above prior. French finance minister pledged to push deficit close to 5%, reinforcing stagflation signals in the Eurozone.
- Iran acting defense minister talks tough: Stated Iran signed the agreement to promote regional stability, but given longstanding US violations, will respond to any breach. US-Iran Hormuz standoff continues; geopolitical risk premium not fully priced out.
- SMBC Nikko: Yen cannot sustain appreciation without fiscal consolidation: Strategist Makoto Noji argued that without firm fiscal reform, sustained yen strength is impossible; widening short-long yield spreads indicate Japan is starting to price in inflation.
- Japan GPIF annual return 16.47%: FY ending March saw 16.47% returns vs 0.71% prior year; investment gains of 41.4 trillion yen, driven largely by global equity gains.
- Federated Hermes: “Return of inflation expectations” was the biggest shift in H1 fixed income: This has profound implications for H2 rate paths and bond pricing.
- China NDRC releases circular economy 15th Five-Year Plan: Targets 16% improvement in resource productivity by 2030 vs 2025; 4.5 billion tons annual comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste.
π§ Situation Assessment
Tesla’s “beat-and-drop” is a classic expectation-exhaustion signal β 25% delivery growth was already priced in; what the market wants now is tangible commercialization progress on FSD/Robotaxi/Optimus. Pure delivery numbers can’t support current valuations, a cautionary signal for the entire US AI-auto narrative.
France’s manufacturing slump combined with the 5% deficit target signals core Eurozone countries are bearing the dual pressure of high rates and fiscal tightening; the ECB may ease more aggressively than markets expect, pressuring EUR.
Gold failing twice at 4195 (this hour and last) means 4200 has formed a clear short-term top. However, thin Independence Day liquidity means any headline could trigger a sudden breakout β not a spot to take heavy directional bets.
Oil is caught between Citi’s $60 target and Hormuz geopolitical risk; the 68-70 range looks hard to break near-term. The Iranian defense minister’s hawkish remarks are a new marginal variable; any concrete action could drive a quick rebound.
USD/JPY’s sharp dip and quick recovery to 160.8 validates SMBC Nikko’s view β verbal intervention without fiscal backing can’t reverse yen weakness. Tonight through Monday morning (thin holiday liquidity) is the highest-risk window for a yen “sneak attack.”
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 15:50 France June Services PMI Final
- 15:55 Germany June Services PMI Final
- 16:00 Eurozone June Services PMI Final
- 16:30 Eurozone June CPI Flash Y/Y
- 20:30 US June Nonfarm Payrolls (released: headline below expectations, unemployment rate stable)
- US stocks close 3 hours early today (01:00 Beijing time, July 4) for Independence Day; full market holiday tomorrow (July 4)