📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-03 12:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

Gold pulled back from an intraday high of 4,195 to around 4,176 as longs took profit after the morning push, but remains firmly above 4,150. Crude whipsawed — briefly up over 1% before easing back to the 69 handle — as Russia’s domestic fuel stabilization measures tangled with the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. US markets are closed today for Independence Day; CME precious metals and energy contracts close early at 01:00 Beijing time tomorrow. Expect liquidity to thin through the afternoon; watch for pre-holiday position squaring in commodities.

🔥 Top Stories This Hour

• US formally rejects ICC jurisdiction over Americans: Acting AG Todd Blanche sent a letter to ICC President Tomoko Akane explicitly rejecting the court’s jurisdiction over US persons, reiterating that the US is not a party to the Rome Statute. The move deepens Washington’s rift with multilateral institutions.
• Trump reshapes diplomacy around “AI power” and presses NATO on defense spending: Trump posted a bar chart on social media comparing defense budgets (US $999B vs UK $90.5B, etc.), claiming America is “paying unilaterally.” Reports indicate Trump is reorienting foreign policy around an “AI-first” doctrine, with cutting-edge models and chips serving as new geopolitical leverage — European allies face renewed pressure to pick sides.
• DAMO Academy unveils AI agent for superconducting materials; 4 new materials experimentally verified: Alibaba DAMO Academy, together with Renmin University and UCAS, launched Elements Claw, the first AI agent dedicated to superconducting material discovery. It predicted 68,000 candidate materials; four brand-new materials have already been synthesized and verified — a material AI-for-Science milestone.
• Chinese gold jewelry prices surge ~30 CNY/g in a single day: Major domestic brands are quoting 1,260–1,262 CNY/g for 24K jewelry, up roughly 30 CNY from yesterday, tracking the post-NFP rebound in international gold prices.
• Lens Technology updates on glass core substrate progress: Management confirmed on an investor call that it is co-developing and validating 22-layer glass core substrates with North American and Korean chip foundry/advanced packaging customers. Korean customer validation is essentially complete; North American validation is progressing smoothly — but the segment has not yet generated revenue and uncertainties remain.
• A-share midday close: ChiNext +1.58%, precious metals and robotics lead: The Shanghai Composite was up ~0.6% at midday; the STAR 50 swung over 4% from an early dip to a gain. Palladium and silver futures rose over 4%, Shanghai gold over 2%. A-share turnover has exceeded 2 trillion CNY for 59 consecutive sessions.
• Hegseth’s European troop-cut plan blocked by White House: Defense Secretary Hegseth had planned to announce further US troop reductions in Europe at a NATO meeting, but Secretary of State Rubio vetoed the plan and Trump ordered it shelved.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The US rejection of ICC jurisdiction combined with Trump’s use of AI chips as geopolitical leverage to pressure NATO on spending signals a further shift from “rules-based” to “transactional power” in US foreign policy, widening cracks in the multilateral order. The near-term market impact is modest, but it raises the geopolitical uncertainty premium over the medium to long term.

DAMO Academy’s AI agent validating four new superconducting materials is a genuine hard-tech breakthrough. If mass production is eventually achieved, it could have profound implications for quantum computing, controlled fusion, and high-speed chips. But the lab-to-industry path remains long; the near-term impact on related stocks will be primarily sentiment-driven.

Gold has now failed twice in two hours to break above the 4,200 level, indicating strong technical resistance and profit-taking pressure. However, with retail gold prices in China jumping 30 CNY in lockstep, physical demand remains supportive, likely capping downside.

A-share precious metals and robotics continue to lead, while industrial metals are rebounding on a softer dollar and fading rate-hike bets. Risk appetite remains elevated, but 59 consecutive sessions above 2 trillion CNY in turnover signal intense two-way positioning; watch whether volume holds through the afternoon.

With US markets closed today and a long weekend ahead, overseas participants will step away progressively. European session volatility should be muted; stay light into the holiday and avoid chasing moves in thin liquidity.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

• July 4 (Sat) — US Independence Day, US markets closed all day; CME metals/energy contracts close early at 01:00 Beijing time July 4
• July 7 (Mon) — US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
• July 9 (Wed) — FOMC June meeting minutes
• July 10 (Thu) — US June CPI