π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-02 11:04 CST
US June NFP due tonight at 20:30 CST, expected to drop to 110K; Meta's AI compute sell-off sparks chip selloff; US-Iran Doha talks focus on Strait of Hormuz
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last Price | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAUUSD) | 4056.80 | +25.37 (+0.63%) | Intraday high 4068.45, precious metals sector surging |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | 67.695 | -0.334 (-0.49%) | Hormuz Strait flows back to 10M bbl/day |
π₯ Key News This Hour
π¦ US ADP Employment Data Below Expectations ADP came in weaker than expected, adding uncertainty ahead of tonight’s NFP report. Market expects June non-farm payrolls to drop from May’s 172K to 110K, with unemployment holding at 4.3%.
π A-Share Precious Metals Sector Explodes Zhaojin Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Shangjin International all hit daily limits. Zijin Mining saw RMB 865M in net institutional inflows. Gold spot broke above 4050, Shanghai Gold morning price at RMB 883.71/gram.
β‘ Meta’s AI Compute Sell-Off Sparks Panic Meta plans to sell surplus AI computing capacity, raising concerns about capital expenditure returns. Korean chip stocks plunged 7% intraday before recovering, but AI trade sustainability is now questioned.
π US-Iran Doha Talks Focus on Strait of Hormuz Hormuz Strait oil flows have recovered to over 10M bbl/day. US officials claim Iran’s “blockade card” isε€±ζ. Washington is pushing Iran to abandon proposed strait transit fees as a precursor to nuclear negotiations.
πΊπΈ US Abandons Long-Term USMCA Renewal Switched to annual review mode, meaning North American trade rules will remain in flux for the next decade, creating supply chain uncertainty for businesses.
π¨π³ A-Share Rare Earth & Cultivated Diamond Sectors Active Dadi Bearup surged 10%+, Huanghe Whirlwind hit daily limit. Small metals sector Xianglu Tungsten also hit daily limit.
π§ Situation Assessment
Tonight’s NFP at 20:30 CST is the day’s biggest catalyst β the market has priced in a “cooling” scenario (110K), so a significant miss would strengthen rate cut bets and be bullish for gold.
Meta’s signal to sell AI compute is worth watching β if hyperscalers start disposing of compute assets, it suggests the ROI timeline for AI capex is being reassessed, near-term bearish for semiconductors.
Gold is holding above 4050 with A-share precious metals rallying in sympathy, but direction hinges on tonight’s NFP outcome.
US-Iran talks show progress but procedural maneuvering continues; restored Hormuz shipping eases near-term crude supply risk.
The yen-to-200 forecast is dramatic but the BOJ’s policy bind is real β rate differentials and fiscal deficits continue to weigh.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- Tonight 20:30 CST β US June Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +110K, unemployment 4.3%)
- Tonight 20:30 CST β US June Unemployment Rate
- Tomorrow (Friday) β Last trading day before US Independence Day; expect thinner liquidity