📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-01 22:12 CST
ISM Manufacturing PMI below expectations; Fed Chair沃什's dovish international debut; Gold surges past 4100; Iran seeks permanent control of Strait of Hormuz
📊 Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAUUSD | 4098.54 | +91.25 (+2.28%) | Hit 4107.96 intraday, all-time high |
| WTI Crude USOIL | 68.798 | -1.104 (-1.58%) | Intraday low 68.18 |
| Iron Ore Futures | 751.50 CNY/t | +2%+ | Strong rebound |
Gold continues its explosive rally, breaking through 4100. Oil under pressure, WTI back near 68.8.
🔥 Key Headlines This Hour
[US June ISM Manufacturing PMI 53.3, below consensus 54] Prior 54. New orders 56 (prior 56.8). Prices paid plummeted to 73 (est. 78, prior 82.1). Manufacturing momentum fading, price pressures easing significantly.
**[Fed Chair沃什 delivers dovish international debut]**沃什 said he hopes to use new technology to understand the economy within 9-12 months, wants to retain dot plots, and emphasized Fed independence. Markets read this as dovish.
[Iran seeks permanent control of Strait of Hormuz with forced tolls] After surviving US-Israel strikes, Iran believes it holds geopolitical leverage. May resort to force if negotiations stall. Geopolitical risk premium sustaining gold rally.
[US-Saudi alliance rift exposed] Saudi Arabia reportedly blocked US military airspace for “freedom operations”; US responded by pausing arms deliveries. Bilateral trust severely damaged.
[June ADP private payrolls +98K, lowest since March] Confirms labor market cooling trend ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data expectations.
🧭 Outlook
ISM prices paid index collapsed from 82.1 to 73, combined with soft ADP payrolls — markets are pricing in further Fed rate cut expectations for the year.
沃什’s dovish debut tone, emphasizing “new technology for economic understanding” and retaining dot plots, is near-term supportive for risk assets.
Iran’s hardline stance on the Strait of Hormuz remains a key driver for gold; geopolitical uncertainty isn’t going away anytime soon.
Oil is under pressure but finding support near 68; watch tomorrow’s EIA inventory data.
⏰ Upcoming Data
- Tonight: Multiple Fed speakers (沃什 international debut ongoing)
- Tomorrow (July 2): US June Factory Orders, EIA Crude Inventory