Hourly Briefing 2026-07-01 15:05 CST
Fed September rate hike probability surges to 80%; Berkshire hikes Japan trading stakes above 10%; Israel warns Gaza near boiling point; Gold drops below 3965
π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-01 15:05 CST
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAUUSD | 3964.87 | -1.06% β | Fell from 4018 intraday to 3964 |
| WTI Crude | 69.383 | -0.74% β | Under pressure, below 69.4 |
A-shares weakening further in the afternoon: advanced packaging sector pulled back collectively, Quick Intelligent hit limit down. GigaDevice dropped over 5% with turnover exceeding 40B yuan. CSI 500 futures down over 1%. Combined Shanghai-Shenzhen turnover topped 3.5 trillion yuan.
π₯ Key News This Hour
β’ Fed September rate hike probability surges to 80% β Federal funds rate futures fell further, pricing in an ~80% chance of a September rate hike. Markets await Fed Chair Warsh’s debut at the global central bank forum tonight.
β’ Berkshire significantly raises Japan trading house stakes β Regulatory filings show Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Marubeni from 9.30% to 10.32%, and Mitsui & Co from 9.82% to 10.83%. Buffett continues doubling down on Japanese assets.
β’ Israel warns Gaza nearing “boiling point” β A senior Israeli security official said the Gaza situation is approaching a boiling point, and returning to conflict is no longer a question of “whether” but “when.” Middle East geopolitical risks heating up.
β’ Iran’s hardline stance: US interference era is over β An Iranian parliamentary official declared that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and that the era of US interference in regional affairs has ended. Asian currencies broadly weakened.
β’ India central bank suspected of FX intervention β Traders reported that the RBI likely intervened in the forex market on Wednesday to support the rupee, after Iran’s hawkish remarks dragged Asian currencies lower.
β’ RBA rate hike probability drops to just 15% β Analysts say the Australian dollar faces enormous selling pressure, with market expectations for another RBA hike drastically cooling.
π§ Situation Assessment
Ahead of Warsh’s global central bank forum debut tonight, markets have already front-run β the September hike probability jumped from ~60% to 80%, signaling a sharp repricing of Fed hawkishness.
Gold fell from 4018 to around 3965, a daily decline exceeding 1%. The strengthening rate hike narrative and firmer dollar are the core drivers. Short-term technicals are weak, but the medium-term central bank gold-buying thesis remains intact β chasing the short side here is risky.
The Middle East warrants vigilance. Israel and Iran issued near-simultaneous hardline signals. Combined Gaza conflict escalation risks and Iran’s sovereignty claims over Hormuz, any further deterioration could trigger a spike in crude oil.
Berkshire’s continued accumulation of Japan trading houses reflects its long-term conviction in yen-denominated and global resource assets, providing sentiment support for A-share resource plays.
β° Upcoming Key Data
β’ 15:50 β France June Manufacturing PMI Final β’ 16:00 β Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI Final β’ 16:30 β UK June Manufacturing PMI Final β’ 20:15 β US June ADP Employment Change β’ 21:00 β Fed Chair Warsh Global Central Bank Forum Speech (KEY) β’ 21:45 β US June ISM Manufacturing PMI