Hourly Briefing 2026-07-01 13:00 CST
Gold drops to 3973 near death cross; Goldman warns daily crude surplus may exceed 3M bbl; OMFIF central bank survey sees gold at 5000-6000 within 12 months; Japan Tankan shows rising sentiment and inflation
π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-01 13:00 CST
π Market Snapshot
- π₯ Gold (XAUUSD): 3,973.24 | -0.85% β β Hit intraday high of 4,018, now retreated toward 3,970
- π’οΈ WTI Crude (USOIL): 69.600 | -0.43% β β Slight pullback, failed to hold above 70
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. CATL Resumption Signal Strengthens, Lithium Carbonate Futures Surge 5.65% Three partner enterprises confirmed receiving CATL resumption notices. Lithium carbonate main contract spiked to 166,180 yuan/ton in late trading. The expectation of CATL’s Jiaxiawo lithium mine restarting has reversed prior supply tightening concerns.
2. OMFIF Central Bank Survey: Gold Could Reach $5,000β6,000 Within 12 Months A survey covering 74 central banks managing over $10 trillion in assets found most expect gold prices between $5,000 and $6,000 over the next year, driven by persistent central bank purchasing demand.
3. Goldman Sachs Warns: Strategic Replenishment Can’t Stop Supply Flood, Daily Surplus May Exceed 3M Barrels With the Strait of Hormuz traffic restored, global crude supply will be released again. Even if countries launch strategic petroleum reserve purchases, it can only partially offset new supply. Medium-term crude outlook remains bearish.
4. JPMorgan: Fed Has Put Gold Bull Market in “Deep Freeze” The hawkish signals under Wath’s leadership have pushed the structural gold bull market from “paused” to “deep freeze,” with rate hike expectations continuing to build.
5. ECB’s De Marco: No Rush to Hike Further The unexpected rapid decline in oil prices has strengthened the case for pausing rate hikes. However, the post-June hike forecast still assumes further tightening, and additional hikes remain possible if data confirms.
6. Japan Tankan Report Signals Rate Hike Readiness Large non-manufacturing index hit its highest since 1991, inflation expectations continue to strengthen, and firms’ investment appetite remains solid. Markets expect October rate hike probability to rise. The yen has broken below 162, its lowest since 1986.
7. Kyocera to Invest Β₯650B in Semiconductor and Data Center Components Focus on semiconductor manufacturing equipment and AI data center parts, reflecting Japanese tech firms’ aggressive push into AI computing infrastructure.
π§ Market Assessment
Gold broke below 4,000 today and accelerated lower, with technical indicators approaching a death cross. However, the OMFIF central bank survey suggests robust long-term gold demand, creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Crude oil faces renewed supply pressure following the Strait of Hormuz reopening, with Goldman explicitly forecasting a daily surplus exceeding 3 million barrels. Combined with uncertain global demand outlook, crude remains under near-term pressure.
The Fed’s hawkish stance contrasts with the ECB’s pause on rate hikes, while the yen’s 38-year low reflects the interplay between Japan’s rate hike expectations and US-Japan rate differentials β global central bank policy paths are diverging further.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- πΊπΈ US ADP Employment Change (Tomorrow 7/2)
- πΊπΈ US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tomorrow 7/2)
- π―π΅ BOJ Board Member Speeches (Later today)
- πͺπΊ Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (7/3)