Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-07-01
Trump listens to Iran war briefing but chooses to continue negotiations; Microsoft plans thousands of job cuts; Fed September rate hike probability hits 80%
π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-07-01
π Market Snapshot
- Gold XAUUSD 4005.83 (-0.04%), down ~13% this quarter β worst since Q2 2013. Fierce battle around $4,000 support.
- WTI Crude 69.967 (+0.09%), range-bound. Bessent investigating potential oil price manipulation.
- Silver ETF holdings up 19.69t to 14,922.22t; Gold ETF steady at 1,005.077t.
- Japan Tankan Large manufacturing sentiment 22 (est. 16), significantly beating expectations.
π₯ Key Overnight Headlines
- Trump listens to full Iran war briefing, chooses diplomacy over military action (WSJ) β eased market fears of Middle East escalation.
- Microsoft plans thousands of layoffs (BI) β affecting sales, consulting, and Xbox; <2.5% of workforce, announcement expected next week.
- Fed September rate hike probability surges to 80% β another FOMC voter turns hawkish; May JOLTS slightly higher but hiring cools.
- US Commerce Dept. to lift export controls on Anthropic’s Fable 5 AI model; OpenAI finds optimization to halve AI inference costs.
- South32 to sell aluminum assets to Alcoa for up to $5.6B enterprise value.
- Apple CEO Cook meets EU tech chief on “Siri AI” β constructive dialogue to ease regulatory friction.
- Boeing suffers IT system outage β ruled out cyberattack, systems being restored.
- Trump’s 927-page financial disclosure β added Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia; gold bars in holdings.
π§ Market Assessment
US stocks closed out their strongest quarter in six years as capital rotated hard out of havens into tech, leaving gold with its worst quarterly drawdown since 2013.
The Fed’s hawkish stance is solidifying, with September rate hike odds at 80%, creating a medium-term headwind for high-multiple growth names.
Microsoft layoffs and Boeing IT trouble expose cost-cutting pressure at mega-caps, but the AI theme (Anthropic deregulation, OpenAI cost reduction) provides structural support.
Gold’s $4,000 level remains a battleground β seasonal factors may offer short-term support, but downside risk is far from resolved.
On the geopolitical front, Trump’s choice to pursue diplomacy over military action keeps near-term risk premiums contained, but Oman’s Hormuz Strait toll proposal warrants monitoring.
π Today’s Key Data
- 09:45 China June RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
- 14:00 UK June Nationwide House Price Index
- 14:30 Switzerland May CPI
- TBD Davos Tech Summit: Physical AI and Robotics