π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-30 10:00
RBA minutes signal restrictive stance for longer; China June non-mfg PMI edges up to 50.2%; A-share semiconductors strong, STAR50 up 2%+; Gold pulls back to 3968
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold (XAUUSD) | 3,967.67 | -1.21% β |
| WTI Crude | 70.21 | -0.08% β |
Gold pulled back sharply in Asia from 4015 to 3968, down over 1%, with A-share precious metals stocks declining in sympathy. Crude held steady above $70, with markets watching the Strait of Hormuz situation closely.
π₯ Key Headlines
π¦ RBA Minutes Signal Restrictive Stance for Longer The Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes struck a hawkish tone: the board believes maintaining restrictive policy is necessary to eliminate excess demand, inflationary pressures remain widespread, and household consumption has not slowed significantly. The RBA also flagged that weak productivity could impede inflation’s return to target, and elevated oil prices may affect pricing and wage-setting behavior. Markets interpreted this as pushing the rate cut window further out.
π China June PMI: Non-Mfg Edges Up, Construction Improves China’s NBS reported the June non-manufacturing PMI at 50.2%, up 0.1pp from the prior month. Services activity accelerated, and construction sentiment improved, but the reading hovers barely above the expansion threshold, suggesting the economic recovery lacks strong internal momentum.
π A-Share Markets: Semiconductors Strong, Precious Metals Retreat The STAR50 index rallied over 2%, and the ChiNext gained over 1%. Semiconductor equipment and optical electronics sectors extended their winning streaks with multiple limit-up stocks. Precious metals stocks declined on falling gold prices, with Hunan Gold down over 4%. Commercial aerospace concepts saw speculative inflows with Zhongtian Rocket hitting the daily limit.
π’οΈ Russia Moves to Ease Fuel Import Standards Facing severe domestic fuel shortages following Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, Russia is planning to temporarily relax fuel quality standards. President Zelensky mocked Putin, claiming “15 failed objectives.”
π§ Outlook
Gold’s swift decline from 4015 to 3968 in a single session signals meaningful profit-taking pressure among precious metals longs, and A-share gold stocksθε¨selling underscores the fragility of the recent rally.
The RBA’s hawkish minutes, combined with the yen’s 40-year lows and broadly tight global central bank stances, are reinforcing dollar strength expectations β a headwind for gold near-term.
A-share semiconductors remain in favor with STAR50 up over 2%, driven by localization narrative momentum. However, Morgan Stanley’s recent warning that semiconductor earnings upgrades have reached historical extremes warrants caution on chasing this rally.
Oil’s flat performance above $70 reflects a standoff: supply risks from Hormuz navigation concerns and Russian fuel shortages provide a floor, but demand-side concerns and lack of catalysts cap the upside.
China’s PMI data was unremarkable β non-manufacturing barely above 50 β reinforcing that the economy still needs policy support to sustain the recovery trajectory.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- Today: US June ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00 CST)
- Today: US May JOLTs Job Openings (22:00 CST)
- Wednesday: China Caixin June Manufacturing PMI
- Wednesday: US June ADP Employment Change
- Thursday: US June Non-Farm Payrolls (key event)
- Thursday: US Independence Day holiday β early market close