πŸ“° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-29 15:05 CST

πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) $4,060.26 β€” down 0.52% Daily high 4,086.09, low 4,039.42. Gold pulling back after last week’s rally, short-term under pressure.

WTI Crude (USOIL) $69.77 β€” down 0.44% Daily high 70.39, low 69.19. Oil slightly weaker but Strait of Hormuz transit remains disrupted, downside support intact.

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. Yuanta Fund sharply raises AI capex forecasts β€” Expects 2026 global AI capex to grow 88% YoY (previously 30%), with another 30% growth in 2027. AI compute investment boom continues to exceed expectations.

  2. Musk: SpaceX plans to release a new AI model every month β€” Grok 4.5 in internal beta. AI arms race moving from lab to commercialization.

  3. BOE’s Pill maintains hawkish stance β€” Voted for rate hike to 4% in last two meetings, warning against complacency on inflation. BOE-ECB policy divergence widens.

  4. Putin acknowledges Russian fuel shortages β€” Considering complete ban on diesel exports. Combined with Hormuz transit disruption, global energy supply chain risks rising.

  5. Record foreign outflow from Korean stocks β€” Foreign investors net sold 7.7 trillion won of KOSPI stocks on Monday, largest single-day sell on record. However, Japanese and Korean markets rallied into close, sentiment mixed.

  6. Japan deploys anti-ship missiles on easternmost island Minamitorishima β€” Geopolitical risk signal intensifying, Asia-Pacific security situation tightening.

  7. U.S. Supreme Court key rulings this week β€” Covering presidential executive power, birthright citizenship, and Fed independence, policy uncertainty elevated.

🧭 Outlook

Gold consolidating around 4,060, short-term pressured by dollar rebound but geopolitical risk and central bank buying support the medium-term picture; 4,000-4,040 is the key support zone.

Oil fluctuating around $70, Hormuz demining will take months and Russia’s potential diesel export ban keeps supply-side risks alive.

Watch points this week: U.S. Supreme Court rulings, Wollack’s first overseas appearance as Fed Chair at the Sintra Forum, SpaceX Nasdaq-100 inclusion triggering passive fund rebalancing.

AI sector momentum persists, with Yuanta’s upgraded forecasts and Musk’s monthly model release cadence providing continued catalysts for compute and application plays.

Leverage risk is a real concern β€” U.S. margin debt at all-time highs; any pullback could amplify selling pressure.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • This week: U.S. Supreme Court multiple rulings (presidential power, Fed independence)
  • This week: Sintra Forum, Wollack’s first public overseas appearance
  • This week: SpaceX Nasdaq-100 inclusion, passive fund rebalancing
  • Ongoing: Hormuz Strait shipping recovery progress, Russia diesel export ban developments