Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-29 13:03 CST
Gold slips below 4050; WTI crude trades near 69.7; Sichuan 5.5 magnitude earthquake; RBC raises S&P 500 target to 8,150; Europe gas stockpiles hit 15-year low
π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-29 13:03 CST
π Market Snapshot
Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4050.20 | -31.09 (-0.76%) β Open 4079.40, high 4086.09, low 4047.35. Gold pulled back from the weekend high, briefly dipping below the 4050 level on profit-taking and a firmer dollar. Volume at 58,994 contracts. Near-term support at 4040.
WTI Crude USOIL: 69.72 | -0.36 (-0.51%) β Open 70.29, high 70.39, low 69.19. Oil consolidated in a narrow 69-70 range. Ongoing shipping risks at the Strait of Hormuz provide a floor, while softer demand expectations cap upside.
π₯ Key News This Hour
Sichuan Earthquake β A 5.5 magnitude earthquake struck Gaoyi County, Yibin, Sichuan at 0:12 AM on June 29, with a depth of 6 km. China’s State Council and Ministry of Emergency Management have dispatched a task force to the affected area.
RBC Raises S&P 500 Target β Royal Bank of Canada raised its 12-month S&P 500 target from 7,900 to 8,150, one of the most bullish calls on Wall Street currently.
Europe Gas Stockpiles Near 15-Year Low β Wood Mackenzie forecasts EU gas storage levels will fall to at least a 15-year low entering the heating season, meaning higher energy prices for businesses and households this winter.
Hong Kong Stocks Surge β The Hang Seng Index rallied 2.12% in the morning session, reclaiming the 23,000 level. Healthcare stocks surged across the board; Hang Seng Tech Index gained 3.6%.
ByteDance Denies Kunlun Chip Cooperation β Reports of ByteDance considering Baidu’s Kunlun AI chips were denied by sources close to the matter, who said there are no current plans for collaboration.
Israel Destroys Hezbollah Tunnel β The IDF demolished a 200+ meter underground Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon.
China Gold Jewelry Prices Rise β Major domestic gold brands raised jewelry prices by approximately 16 yuan/gram from last week, now ranging 1,233-1,238 yuan/gram, tracking international gold movements.
π§ Market Outlook
Gold retreated from the 4,086 high to around 4,050, facing short-term technical pressure.
However, Middle East geopolitical risks and inflation expectations continue to support the bull case β a hold at 4,040-4,050 could set up another push toward 4,100.
Hormuz Strait shipping risks remain a key oil support factor, with major shipping lines warning that demining could take months and capacity may stay below 50% of pre-war levels for an extended period.
Meanwhile, margin debt has hit all-time highs and leveraged ETF and options trading is expanding in tandem β a warning that the market’s rally is increasingly reliant on leverage.
RBC’s bullish 8,150 target and the strong Hong Kong healthcare rally signal improving risk appetite in pockets, but the fragility of leverage-driven gains warrants caution.
In China, the Sichuan earthquake impact is limited; market focus remains on sector rotation in A-share tech and healthcare, and price transmission in domestic gold consumption.
β° Upcoming Events
- First trading day of the week β watch the US market open at 21:30 CST
- Ongoing monitoring of Middle East ceasefire negotiations and Hormuz Strait shipping recovery
- No major US economic data releases this week; markets focused on geopolitics and capital flows