๐ฐ Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-28 13:03 CST
Middle East escalation deepens: Iran condemns US airstrike, launches missiles at Bahrain and Kuwait; Israel multi-front operations; gold surges past 4080; oil slips below $70
๐ฐ Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-28 13:03 CST
๐ Market Snapshot
- ๐ฅ Spot Gold 4081.29 (+1.36%), intraday high 4096, safe-haven demand remains strong
- ๐ข๏ธ WTI Crude 70.077 (-1.75%), fell from 71.3 to below $70, inventory dislocation still digesting
๐ฅ Key News This Hour
- ๐ฎ๐ท Iran’s Foreign Ministry strongly condemned US airstrikes, calling them a violation of the temporary ceasefire agreement; FM Araghchi has departed for Baghdad to discuss the regional situation with senior Iraqi officials
- ๐จ Bahrain’s Interior Ministry issued emergency alert, urging citizens to proceed to nearest safe locations; Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry condemned Iran’s renewed attacks
- ๐ฎ๐ฑ Israeli military operates on multiple fronts: eliminated militants in a southern Syria security zone, and killed Hezbollah fighters in Nabatieh, Lebanon, destroying launchers
- ๐บ๐ธ US official says no significant impact to US facilities in Middle East, no casualties reported; situation in Iran still evolving
- ๐ฎ๐ฑ Netanyahu explicitly rejects two-state solution, declaring there is no longer space for “two states” between the sea and the Jordan River
- ๐ข๏ธ Oil market “spatial-temporal mismatch”: Brent crude fell back to pre-war levels in two weeks, but global inventories remain at wartime levels โ as this gap narrows, volatility could spike
- ๐ป Google restricts Meta’s use of Gemini AI, citing compute capacity constraints from surging AI demand
๐งญ Assessment
Middle East tensions enter a dangerous escalation phase, with Iran launching missile and drone attacks against neighboring Bahrain and Kuwait, while the US airstrikes on southern Iran draw official condemnation from Tehran โ the “temporary ceasefire” framework is effectively defunct.
Iran’s FM็ดงๆฅ visit to Baghdad signals Tehran is seeking regional diplomatic support, attempting to balance military strikes with diplomatic maneuvering.
Israel is simultaneously conducting military operations in Syria and Lebanon, with Netanyahu openly rejecting a two-state solution โ the outlook for Middle East peace has darkened considerably.
Gold broke above 4080, hitting new recent highs as safe-haven demand gets sustained support from geopolitical conflict, with attention shifting from “can 4000 hold” to “can 4100 be breached.”
Oil slipped below $70 as markets digest the inventory mismatch thesis โ war premium has faded but supply risks haven’t truly dissolved, and this pricing-vs-reality divergence could correct at any time.
Bahrain alerts sounded, Iran launching missiles in multiple directions โ the Middle East conflict has expanded from a bilateral Iran-Israel confrontation to a regional standoff, with risk spillover probability rising significantly.
โฐ Upcoming Key Data
- ๐ Jun 29 (Mon): China June Official Manufacturing PMI
- ๐ This week: US June Non-Farm Payrolls (released early)
- ๐ This week: USDA Planting Acres & Quarterly Stocks Report
- ๐ This week: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
- ๐ This week: Quarter-end / month-end / half-year-end rebalancing window, volatility likely to amplify