π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-06-28
US military strikes Iran again with larger scale; Gold spikes to 4096 then retreats; WTI crude drops below $70; Israel's far-right opposes Lebanon ceasefire deal
π Market Snapshot
- π₯ Gold XAUUSD: 4,081.29 (+1.36%), spiked to 4,096 intraday, low at 3,983, 110+ dollar range
- π’οΈ WTI Crude: 70.08 (-1.75%), broke below $70, high 71.67, low 68.46
π₯ Overnight Key News
π΄ US-Iran Conflict Escalation β Core Overnight Variable
- US CENTCOM confirmed “additional strikes” on multiple Iranian targets, larger in scale than the previous night’s operations
- Explosions heard in Iran’s Sirik area; communications tower struck by shells; village on Qeshm Island hit
- US and Bahrain forces jointly shot down 9 Iranian drones heading toward US forces stationed in Bahrain
- Trigger: Iran’s prior attack on commercial tanker “M/V EverLovely”, which the US cited as justification for escalation
ποΈ Other Middle East Developments
- After signing the US-brokered Lebanon-Israel framework agreement, Israel’s National Security Minister Ben Gvir called it a “major mistake” and demanded it be submitted to cabinet for a vote
- Israeli officials warned of “severe response” if Hezbollah launches any attacks
- Lebanese president requested US assistance to prevent agreement violations; Trump confirmed US support for Lebanon
- Iranian FMιΏζζ Όι½ (Araghchi) to visit Iraq on Sunday
π΅ Macro & Markets
- Neuberger: Dollar could break out of its 6-9 month range, supported short-term by rising US real rates
- Gavekal Research: Scenario of Trump pressuring Fed to cut rates and driving inflation above 2% is unlikely
- Trump nominated Lance Schroyer as next ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) director
- 6.0 magnitude earthquake off Japan’s Honshu east coast
π§ Outlook & Analysis
The US-Iran mutual strike dynamic is now firmly established, with the overnight US operations significantly larger in scale β the second major military action since Iran attacked a commercial tanker.
Gold’s spike to 4,096 followed by a retreat to 4,081 suggests geopolitical premium is partially priced in, but the 4,000 level holds near-term support.
Oil’s counterintuitive decline reflects a market correction of prior overpricing of Strait of Hormuz blockade risk β but this correction could reverse at any moment.
The Lebanon-Israel ceasefire framework faces serious domestic opposition from Israel’s hawkish right wing, combined with Hezbollah’s threat, making implementation highly uncertain.
This is a super data week: early non-farm payrolls release combined with month-end, quarter-end, and half-year-end rebalancing means volatility is likely to surge; watch for Monday’s gap on weekend geopolitical headlines.
π Today’s Economic Calendar
Sunday β no major economic data releases from key economies. Key events to watch this week (6/29-7/3):
- βββ China June Official Manufacturing PMI (Monday)
- βββ US June Non-Farm Payrolls (released early this week)
- βββ USDA Planting Acres & Quarterly Stocks Report
- Half-year-end rebalancing + quarter-end window = significantly elevated global market volatility expected