📊 Market Snapshot

  • 🥇 Gold XAUUSD — $4,081.29 (+1.36%), intraday high $4,096, low $3,983. Bulls in control, new all-time high.
  • 🛢️ WTI Crude USOIL — $70.08 (-1.75%), intraday high $71.67, low $68.46. US-Iran ceasefire expectations weighing on prices.
  • 🩷 Silver ETF — iShares Silver Trust holdings decreased 43.59 tonnes to 14,947.54 tonnes, under short-term pressure.

🔥 Key Headlines This Hour

1. Iran Situation: Ceasefire in Name Only, Conflict Escalates

  • Iranian Mehr News Agency: US attacks caused no damage to Sirik Port
  • IRGC struck US military positions in retaliation
  • Iranian officials: If US cannot restrain Israel, Iran reserves right to respond
  • Senior Iranian official accuses Trump of violating negotiation and ceasefire principles
  • US VP Vance warns: Any Iranian violence will be met with military force

2. China Industrial Profits Data Released

  • Jan-May industrial profits up 18.8% YoY (vs 18.2% prior)
  • May monthly industrial profit growth at 21.1% (vs 24.7% prior), pace moderating
  • Electronics sector profits surged 103.9%, contributing 43.1% of total industrial profit growth
  • Raw materials manufacturing profits up 83.1%, high-tech manufacturing maintains double-digit growth

3. Germany Records All-Time High Temperature

  • German Weather Service preliminary observation: 41.3°C, highest temperature ever recorded in the country

4. Venezuela Earthquake

  • UN official reports over 50,000 missing; Venezuelan government has not confirmed figures

🧭 Market Assessment

Gold holds firm above $4080 with geopolitical risk premium providing sustained support. Near-term focus on whether $4100 can be broken.

Crude oil retreats below $70 on ceasefire expectations, but the实质 of conflict remains unresolved, providing a floor for prices.

The Middle East is stuck in a “negotiate while fighting” pattern. Iran’s strike on US positions means the ceasefire agreement is effectively dead, increasing short-term market volatility.

China’s Jan-May industrial profits data beat expectations, with electronics surging 103.9%. However, May’s monthly pace moderated to 21.1%, warranting close monitoring of forward momentum.

Goldman Sachs warns of overheating risks in the semiconductor sector, a notable contrast with the high-tech manufacturing profit boom — worth watching.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Next week focus: China June Official Manufacturing PMI, US June Non-Farm Payrolls
  • USDA Planting Acres and Quarterly Stocks Report
  • Monitor Iran situation developments for market impact